Will Washington help Kiev fight Putin or not? We see that Trump sends contradictory messages every week. What do you think?
M. McFaul: Trump is a complicated person. At the moment, our country's support for Ukraine is not one hundred percent, which is why I am very ashamed. I am ashamed that we abandoned the Ukrainians, that Trump decided to end military support and economic aid. After all, we provide intelligence, Trump gives Ukraine the opportunity to buy our weapons, which is still better than nothing. There are a number of humanitarian projects, but there is no specific strong support from the White House.
We should also help Ukraine because of our national interests
Personally, I think we should do this not only because we support the ideas of democracy and freedom, but because it affects our national interests: if we manage to stop the Russian troops in Ukraine, we will not have to fight with these soldiers in Estonia or another NATO country. This is my position. But Trump does not think that there is a struggle between democracies and dictatorships - he thinks that there are strong and weak leaders. In his opinion, Putin is a strong person, and he likes to help the strong. I want to emphasize that I personally think that Putin is weak.
And is Zelensky strong?
M. McFaul: Now Trump is wavering. During that terrible first meeting between Zelensky and Trump at the White House, if you remember, he told the Ukrainian leader that he didn't hold strong cards in his hands. And the Ukrainian president replied to Trump that this was not a game, but a war. And they quarreled. And now Trump noticed that Zelensky "has a card", because the balance of power in this war has changed. That is why now Trump is hesitating and maybe he will do something for Zelensky. And I would also like to add that the American population supports the Ukrainians much more today than it did a year and a half ago. The reason - people understand that Putin is a bad person. If you ask Americans whether Putin is good or bad, 82 percent will say that he is bad. In my opinion, Americans understand the essence of this war better than Trump.
The West's Mistakes Towards Russia
Don't you think Biden made a crucial mistake in 2021 when, in response to Putin's concentration of troops on the border with Ukraine, he didn't say: “Come on, everyone quickly go back to the barracks“? Instead, he invited Putin to Geneva to discuss nuclear weapons. And Putin decided that Biden was an old man who could simply be made fun of. Didn't Putin decide right then that no one would do anything to him?
M. McFaul: Yes, it was a mistake, and moreover, I think the mistake was made even earlier – 20 years ago, when we were worried about what Putin would think and hesitated, we didn't know what should happen to NATO. I mean the delay in the invitations to join NATO for Georgia and Ukraine in 2008, as well as the subsequent war between Russia and Georgia, when we did almost nothing.
The West also made a mistake 30 years ago, when the question was whether there would be democracy in Russia or not. I was a supporter of the thesis that we should help consolidate democratic institutions in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but we failed to cope with this. We are to blame, I personally feel responsible for this failure.
Why did this failure occur?
There are two important things here. First, privatization. The fact that everything was handed over to the oligarchs, in my opinion, was a mistake. The second mistake was that Yeltsin decided to bet on Putin - first as prime minister, and then as president. If it were another person...Boris Nemtsov, for example. This would have been a completely different vector of development for Russia, different from the one with Putin. But this was not our mistake here - we have nothing to do with these issues.
The West should have helped with democratization in Russia
The West's mistake was completely different. It was right to try to help with democratization and the construction of capitalism in Russia, as we did after World War II in Germany and Japan. But, firstly, we did not provide Russia with as much assistance in this regard as Germany and Japan. Secondly, there should have been a plan B for the post-communist countries that seceded from the USSR. That is, NATO expansion should have been carried out much faster.
As for Biden, we should thank him for the fact that the supply of weapons to Ukraine began immediately after the war began. However, this was happening too slowly. Western politicians were constantly worried that Putin could use nuclear weapons - especially in the fall of 2022.
And you think that Putin will not use nuclear weapons?
M. McFaul: Yes, I think so. Putin has made many mistakes, but he is not stupid and understands this. And if he does so, he will find himself isolated not only from Europe and the United States, but also from China and India. For them, this is a matter of principle, they would not support him.
What was not understood in Moscow, and in Washington
You say that Putin is a weak person. You have met with him, why do you define him that way?
M. McFaul: A strong and smart person can receive different information and make decisions based on it. I am talking about a president, a head of a large corporation, any leader. And he is not capable of doing this - he does not hear and does not read alternative information in order to be able to make corrections on this basis.
He simply does not receive alternative information. This was obvious when I was ambassador. He kept getting red folders from the intelligence services and didn't read anything else. And his entire entourage tells him what he wants to hear. This is not strength, but weakness. And secondly, he is afraid of everything and everyone. A strong person would not arrest Navalny, much less kill him. His fear of independent media and independent organizations is a sign of weakness, not strength. And thirdly - he is a very ideological person, he has been waging this terrible war for 4.5 years, and only an irrational person could do that. Putin is convinced that he is a hero, that he has a place in history. You can only do such things if you are not rational.
*Michael McFaul is an American political scientist, professor at Stanford University and former US Ambassador to Russia (2012-2014) during the administration of President Barack Obama.
Author: Konstantin Eggert