Belgrade remains blocked on its path to the European Union, after a total of eight countries declared themselves against the opening of Cluster 3 (Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth) at the meeting of the ambassadors of the member states in Brussels. Among those who imposed the veto, in addition to the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Belgium and the three Baltic republics, were also neighboring Bulgaria and Croatia.
The decision came on the same day that the European Parliament adopted an extremely critical resolution against Serbia, which caused a wave of comments and analyses in the Serbian public space.
Official Belgrade: “The circle of support is expanding, the blockades are surmountable“
Despite the serious diplomatic blow, the official authorities in Serbia are demonstrating moderate confidence and trying to downplay the burden of the collective veto.
Minister for European Integration Nemanja Starović maintained an optimistic tone and emphasized to Radio Television Serbia (RTS) that despite the decision in Brussels, “the circle of support for Serbia in the EU is actually expanding“. According to him, the opening of Cluster 3 is “just one of hundreds of steps“ on the long road to full membership.
Starović emphasized that any bilateral or regional blockade within the EU can be overcome, as long as there is strong political will among the major capitals. He cited the former veto that Slovenia imposed on Croatia, which was subsequently successfully resolved.
President Aleksandar Vučić, for his part, took a more distant position. Even before the final vote of the ambassadors, he expressed serious skepticism about the rapid expansion of the Union, stating that he was not optimistic about the imminent admission of the Western Balkan countries to the bloc.
Zagreb under the microscope: Croatia's specific arguments
The focus of Serbian comments has traditionally been the position of official Zagreb, which in Belgrade is interpreted not so much as a principled concern for reforms, but as open political hostility.
President Aleksandar Vučić has lashed out at Croatia, stating that "our neighbor wants to see Serbia weak, poor and humiliated". He added to RTS that for him, such behavior on the part of Zagreb "is nothing new or unexpected".
Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabić has directed her anger directly at the new European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia – Croatian MEP Tonino Picula. Brnabić commented on the social network X that Picula's demands to suspend EU funds are an attempt to punish Serbia because the country pursues a sovereign policy, not because it lacks reforms.
The leading Serbian media noted that Zagreb uses bilateral issues (such as minority rights and the search for missing persons from the wars of the 1990s) as leverage to exert maximum diplomatic pressure on Belgrade in Brussels.
The Sofia Factor: Between „a stab in the back“ and pragmatic composure
The reaction in Serbia to Bulgaria's position shows an interesting dynamic - it fluctuates between the traditional emotional disappointment with „neighborly betrayal“ and the unexpectedly pragmatic, cold reading of political reality.
A large part of the leading and more sensational Serbian media, including the daily newspaper “Blic“, reacted with a sharp headline: „ОПЕТ НОЖ У ЛЕЈА ОД БУГАРСКЕ, ОПЕТ ХРВАТСКА“ („A knife in the back from Bulgaria, again Croatia“). This phrase is deeply rooted in the Serbian historical narrative and reflects the feeling of insult that a neighboring country, with which Belgrade is trying to build strategic partnerships in energy and infrastructure, is once again blocking their European integration.
In contrast to the furious attacks against Croatia, the Serbian leadership has demonstrated remarkable composure towards Sofia. President Aleksandar Vučić and Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabić have deliberately avoided personal attacks on Bulgarian politicians. This is explained by Belgrade's reluctance to damage the delicate economic relations with Bulgaria, especially in the area of gas transit through the “Balkan Stream“.
Serbian analysts comment on Sofia's move without unnecessary pathos. The expert community in Serbia emphasizes that the Bulgarian veto is more a result of “solidarity within the EU“ and following the line of Berlin and The Hague, than of any deep bilateral conflict with Belgrade. Sofia's move is perceived as a pragmatic “burden-shifting“ to the larger countries, so that Bulgaria does not remain isolated in the Balkans.
Media in Serbia: Failure of the diplomatic offensive
The leading Serbian media and information portals emphasize the fact that Belgrade has not managed to open a single new negotiation title for nearly five years.
The newspaper „Kurir“ and regional publications note that the blockade of the eight countries is a fact, despite the extremely intensive lobbying of Serbian diplomacy in recent weeks.
The media emphasize that even the open support of influential member states such as France and Italy, as well as the recommendation of the European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, have not been enough to move the negotiations from the deadlock.
The Serbian press frankly points out the motives of the blocking group of eight nations – systemic remarks regarding the rule of law, lack of progress in the fight against corruption and Belgrade's categorical refusal to harmonize its foreign policy with Brussels, most notably through the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation.
Expert analysis: “Crisis of confidence and geopolitical trap“
Serbian political analysts and experts on European affairs see in Brussels' decision a deep structural problem that goes beyond the purely technical criteria for negotiations.
Experts recall that Serbia fulfilled the technical conditions for this particular package back in 2021. Its delay has turned Cluster 3 into a powerful symbol of how predictable and meritocratic the EU enlargement process itself has remained.
In analyst circles In Belgrade, there is a perception that Serbia is trapped in a geopolitical trap. On the one hand, the European Commission acknowledges Belgrade's cooperation in preventing the circumvention of sanctions. On the other hand, regional neighbors such as Croatia and Bulgaria are using their veto power. Experts warn that another round of door closings is reinforcing Euroscepticism among ordinary Serbian citizens. When technical criteria are overshadowed by political demands, the motivation for reforms in society decreases. The European Commission's moves: The strategy of "gradual integration" Despite the blockade at the member state level, Brussels has no intention of letting Belgrade out of its geopolitical orbit. Analysts in Serbia predict that the European Commission will rely on the so-called “gradual or phased integration“ to compensate for the stalemate in the negotiations.
The new EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Cos, remains among the strongest advocates of Serbia's rapprochement with the EU. The Commission has already sent a non-paper (non-paper) to the capitals, arguing that Belgrade is has made sufficient reforms in the judiciary and media (including changes to the REM) to merit a step forward.
With full membership looking elusive by the end of the decade, the Commission will try to tie Serbia in through economic mechanisms, giving it early access to sectors of the European common market.
The EU will use the Western Balkans Growth Plan as a key tool for influence. Brussels will tie each tranche of the planned billions of euros to specific political concessions, trying to balance Serbia's geopolitical hold and the demands of skeptical member states for democratic reforms.
The economic cost: What does Serbian business lose?
The slowdown in Cluster 3 (“Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth“) does not only have political dimensions – it causes direct economic damage to the Serbian economy and local companies.
Forgotten benefits of the single market: This cluster covers key chapters such as information society, media, tax policy, economic and monetary policy, industrial policy and customs union. Its blocking means that Serbian exporters will continue to face administrative and customs barriers at the borders with the EU, which makes their products more expensive.
A blow to foreign direct investment: The uncertainty surrounding the country's European path sends a negative signal to major Western European investors. Corporations seeking a stable legal and economic environment for outsourcing production may shift their capital to countries with a clearer European perspective.
Slow technological development: As digital reforms and market competition are delayed, Serbian businesses are losing the opportunity for faster modernization and easier access to European supply chains. Although Serbia recently joined the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), its full benefits in reducing transaction fees for businesses remain limited without political progress on the cluster.