There is something almost poetic in the way Bulgaria enters the next presidential campaign. The country is moving forward, parties are being renamed, old faces are getting new labels, new faces are finding themselves with old political biographies, and sociology presents us with a wonderful paradox: "Progressive Bulgaria" is ruling, Iliyana Yotova is leading, Andrey Gyurov is following her. And "We Continue the Change" and Rumen Radev's party - "Progressive Bulgaria" - already look like two political families that are officially not related, but everyone knows they are.
The latest survey by "Trend" shows a serious lead for Yotova & Valchev & 47.8% against 24.6% for Gyurov-Kandev. Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin are third with 9.7%. The expected turnout is about 2.5 million people. This means one thing: a runoff is inevitable.
More sociology
„Market LINKS“ for example, measures 41.4% for Yotova-Vulchev against 21.9% for Gyurov-Kandev and 6.4% for Kostadinov-Volgin.
„Sova Harris“ gives 50.2% for Yotova-Vulchev, 23.7% for Gyurov-Kandev and 12.7% for Kostadinov-Volgin.
„Alpha Research“ measures 44.5% for Yotova-Vulchev, 26.1% for Gyurov-Kandev and 10.5% for Kostadinov-Volgin.
“Progressive change“
And here is the Bulgarian political paradox: the progressives are in power, the change is in opposition, but both claim to represent the future. Yotova has the huge advantage of being known. Gyurov has the huge task of explaining why the new choice is, since his political biography does not begin with this presidential campaign at all. Gyurov must “sell“ change of people who have already bought “change“ several times.
The interesting thing is that Gyurov, who was Yotova's official minister, must also convince the voters of “Progressive Bulgaria“ that they should vote for him. This is no longer just a political campaign. This is almost a family dispute over the inheritance in one family.
Yotova is leading, but should she be calm?
47% versus 24% (if we take an average from all the surveys) is a difference of 23 percentage points. This is not a lead that allows the second to calmly say: “Everything is just beginning“. Gyurov, of course, will say it. This is how politics is done. But the truth is that Gyurov has a lot, a lot of work to do in “selling change“. Yotova does not have to explain who she is. She only has to remind people who she is. Gyurov has to explain why he is the alternative.
And GERB and MRF are watching from the sidelines
While Yotova and Gyurov are fighting for the first two places, GERB and MRF are standing on the sidelines and watching. This may seem like weakness, but in fact it may turn out to be a very well-thought-out strategic move. It is clear that the presidential elections are not an “important“ battle for them, they do not even want to win it, because they are not participating, but the elections may turn out to be a great tool with which to understand which electorate belongs to whom, who is moving, who is falling apart and who can be attracted afterwards. And today GERB is second in parliamentary attitudes with 14.2%, while MRF is with 6.2%, and “Progressive Bulgaria“ is far ahead with 40.8%.
So for Borisov and Peevski it is more interesting not who will become president, but what the electoral map will look like after the presidential elections, because next year the battle for local government is coming. So, while others are measuring their percentages, GERB and MRF can calmly take notes.
Right now we are talking about sociology, not about the election result
Sociologists show a picture in which Yotova is first, Gyurov second, Kostadinov third. And this structure seems stable enough for us to talk about an almost certain run-off. Here Kostadinov's third place is interesting. About 10% is not enough for a run-off, but it is enough to be a factor in the second round. The same applies to the other candidates. In the run-off, Yotova will have to convince people that she is not a continuation of Radev's political project in the presidency, but whether she will succeed. The biggest irony of these elections is that both Yotova and Gyurov are talking about the future. One side comes with “Progressive Bulgaria“. The other – with the legacy of “We continue the change“. Some are progressive. The others are change-makers – in the literal sense of the word. And the voter somehow has to decide whether these are two different political proposals, or two versions of the same promise – of some “progressive change“.
And because our politics is particularly talented at turning yesterday's allies into today's opponents, and tomorrow's partners into yesterday's enemies, the voter can only keep track of who exactly is on which side of “change“.