Ukraine's relations with Hungary have deteriorated to such an extent that speculation has emerged about a Hungarian invasion of the Transcarpathian region. Will Orban finally lead the country to a Russian-style dictatorship?
A spy thriller, a diplomatic ice age with Ukraine, a pro-Russian propaganda campaign, and finally - dubious investigations against Orban's biggest opponent. Hungary is going through a historical period that could decide whether the country will return to freedom and democracy or Prime Minister Viktor Orban will take it even closer to a Russian-style dictatorship.
What happened? On May 9, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) announced that it had arrested two Ukrainian citizens in the Transcarpathian region, accused of spying for Hungary. Evidence was presented, and one of the detainees allegedly confessed. The two men were allegedly collecting information about military units, which they passed on to Hungarian intelligence - including the locations, equipment and routes of the units. There is a Hungarian minority in the Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia, which borders Hungary. The men accused of espionage were allegedly collecting information about whether weapons could be purchased on the black market, how the local population would react in the event of a Hungarian invasion, and what the weaknesses were in the local land and air defenses.
Diplomatic relations are at rock bottom
For the first time, Ukraine has arrested people on charges of spying for Hungary. At the same time, relations between the two countries are at their worst in 30 years. Official Budapest reacted immediately by expelling two Ukrainian diplomats on charges of espionage. Kiev also returned diplomats to Hungary. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said that he would not allow his country to be slandered “because it wants peace”.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made similar comments on his Facebook profile. According to him, the accusations against Hungary were caused by the fact that the country is about to vote on Ukraine's potential accession to the EU. The campaign on this occasion in Hungary is filled with racist propaganda against Ukrainians.
“Phase on the road to war”
The Ukrainian-Hungarian spy and intelligence affair is becoming even more explosive due to the fact that an audio recording of a confidential speech by Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalai-Bobrovnytsky from April 2023 recently appeared in Hungary. The recording was published by Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition party “Tisa” and currently Orbán's main rival for the parliamentary elections in the spring of 2026.
In his speech, Szalai-Bobrovnytsky said that Hungary is breaking with the “peace mentality” and moving to “phase zero on the road to war”. It is not clear from the audio fragment which war is meant. Szalai-Bobrovnytsky himself does not deny the content of the speech, but says that he simply wanted to express in general terms that Hungary should be well prepared to maintain peace in view of the current crises. However, the wording of the leaked speech contrasts sharply with Orbán’s constant rhetoric and his claims that Hungary is the only EU country that wants peace in Europe.
Orbán calls Ukraine a “no man’s land”
Szalai-Bobrovnytsky’s bellicose speech in the heated context of the spy affair fuels speculation that a Hungarian invasion of Transcarpathia is not ruled out, although this is unlikely for now. However, it is clear that Orbán may be making plans for some possible border changes and the return of parts of Transcarpathia that once belonged to Hungary. It is known that Orban has repeatedly spoken of Ukraine as a “no man’s land” or a “territory they call Ukraine”.
Hungary’s accusations that Ukraine does not respect the rights of the Hungarian minority are far from the truth, especially considering that Ukraine reformed the language rights of minority groups in 2023. Orban’s pro-Russian ideas seem even more dangerous in view of the fact that Russia has repeatedly proposed that Ukraine be divided between Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania if Moscow wins the war. Orban has never denied such a scenario. Recently, he has even stopped saying that Hungary has no intention of changing its borders.
Foreign-funded ones are now “financed by Ukraine”
All the events of the last few days become even more scandalous when you consider that Orban and his government are linking them to their fight against the opposition party of Peter Magyar. He is currently the most popular Hungarian politician, and his party "Tisa" is leading in the polls against Orban's "Fidesz". Now suddenly Magyar and his party are accused of representing Ukrainian interests. Until recently, Orban's critics and opponents were labeled as being financed by George Soros or simply as "foreign agents". Now the Hungarian government has also started accusing independent journalists of being "paid by Ukraine" or working for the Ukrainian secret services.
Actions on the Russian model
Regarding Peter Magyar - so far, the government's suggestions have been unsuccessful. There is no sign of abating approval for him or his party. So Orban seems to have adopted another strategy, following the Russian model of cracking down on dissident Alexei Navalny, who has been repeatedly sued on trumped-up charges.
Magyar, for example, is now accused of insider trading on the stock exchange, although no evidence has been presented. Nevertheless, the Hungarian National Bank and the prosecutor's office are investigating Magyar. And Orban's state media are already reporting that Magyar could spend up to five years in prison if convicted.