What is your forecast for the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which begin today, May 15?
Andrey Kozyrev: I would be very happy if I am wrong, but in my opinion they are a pure waste of time. There is no reason to believe that these negotiations, whoever participates in them, will be crowned with any success.
The only way for Vladimir Putin to be deterred and actually be encouraged to normal negotiations and reflections on ending the intervention is to arm Ukraine to the teeth - as US President Donald Trump has formulated it. Only the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian economy and the strength of the entire country can be an obstacle to further aggression in Europe and the continuation of this war. But that's exactly what's not happening.
"The West is just talking. Its will is weak."
It is assumed that as a result of the diplomatic efforts of recent weeks, Putin is in a zugzwang. According to Trump, things are developing differently than the Russian president imagined. Do you think so too?
Andrey Kozyrev: There are no signs of Trump's readiness to take anything concrete, i.e. at least impose economic sanctions. They won't contribute much, but he's not even doing that, let alone supplying modern weapons and expanding military aid.
So far, I see one thing: neither Trump nor anyone else among the Western allies is ready to do what the "eastern allies" are doing for Russia. North Korea and Iran are supplying weapons and missiles. North Korea, meanwhile, is also directly participating in the intervention and sending troops. And the West only talks. In that case, what kind of threat are we talking about? Putin is already used to threats.
Do you think that the US, led by Trump, will change its policy and supply more weapons to Ukraine?
Andrey Kozyrev: They could do it - it's a matter of political will. But they are afraid - they are afraid of Putin's nuclear threats. And he would never dare to resort to nuclear weapons because of Ukraine - this is a pure threat. The US was afraid and continues to be afraid.
The West has shown that its will is weak. It has weapons. France, Germany and Great Britain have weapons that they can produce and deliver quite quickly to change the course of the war and even end it. I hope that Russia will withdraw to its borders. Negotiations are just a substitute for all other measures.
What do you think as a person who is currently in Washington: is Trump really ready at any moment to withdraw, forget about Ukraine, or act as if it does not exist on the map?
Andrey Kozyrev: I think he would do this willingly. And there are many in his circle who would gladly do exactly that: to hide their heads in the sand and insist that America comes first - that nothing else matters and that Europe should do whatever it wants. This shows a complete misunderstanding of America's role as the leader of the free world, as well as of American interests in general, including economic ones. He refrains only because of public opinion, which in the United States is predominantly on the side of Ukraine.
He is also worried that part of the American tradition is to show sympathy for democracies when they have to defend themselves from dictatorship. Both in Europe and in the US Congress there are many, including Republicans, who are not openly against Trump, but have clear positions of their own. There is a resolution in defense of Ukraine - and Trump must comply with it.
"Russia is losing itself"
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was your deputy and you speak very positively about him. But what are his options for action within the Putin regime?
Andrey Kozyrev: None, since every foreign minister carries out the president's policy. In this case, we are talking about a dictator and the foreign minister serves the dictator, not the interests of Russia. I think Lavrov is fully aware that for Russia this war is just as disastrous as it is for Ukraine. And in the long run it would be an even greater catastrophe. As Russia loses itself, while in the heroic battle Ukraine increasingly finds itself.
Author: Olga Tikhomirova