The Russian military leadership is embellishing the data on its military successes in Ukraine: they are one third higher than the real ones, according to the Washington Institute for the Study of War.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov has significantly exaggerated the achievements of the Russian army in Ukraine during the spring-summer offensive campaign - this is the conclusion reached by analysts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (IWW) in their daily review for Sunday, August 31.
According to Gerasimov, since March 2025, Russian troops have captured 149 settlements and over 3,500 sq. km of Ukrainian territory. The data of the IVM, which has studied photos and video footage from the front, show that the Russian army managed to seize only 2,346 sq. km of territory and 130 settlements. In addition, according to analysts, Russia has occupied 76.7% of the Donetsk region, 73.2% of the Kherson region and 73% of the Zaporizhia region, and not 79%, 76% and 74%, respectively, as Gerasimov claims. However, the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the IVM for the Luhansk region coincide - the Russians control 99.7% of it.
Moscow is trying to misinform the West
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe that with its official announcements about Russian successes, Moscow is trying to create a false sense of rapid progress and thus influence Western policy. "The Kremlin is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its military goals on the battlefield, so Ukraine must give in to Russian demands, and the West must accordingly stop its support for Ukraine," the report says.
Russia is covering up heavy losses and slow pace of advance
The Kremlin's statistics on territorial gains ignore the significant losses suffered by Russian troops and the creeping nature of the Russian advance, presenting an incomplete picture of Russia's effectiveness on the battlefield, IIM experts say. "Since the winter of 2024, Russian forces have suffered particularly high losses for disproportionately small territorial gains," they write.
Kyiv: Kremlin is trying to present wishful thinking
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) also questioned the Russian Federation's claims about alleged successes in the Russian offensive over the past few months. Kiev called Valery Gerasimov's statement "a blatant lie" and "an attempt at wishful thinking".
The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim that Russia did not establish control over a single major city in the spring and summer, and that the figures presented in Moscow are "significantly exaggerated".