Faced with American wait-and-see attitude and Western constraints, Kiev is rethinking tomorrow’s war and has found a way to dismantle the Russian military machine
For months, Ukraine has been pursuing a strategy that is both ambitious and unprecedented: to strike at the heart of Russia’s war – not just on the battlefield, but at the very foundation of its oil economy.
Faced with faltering diplomatic talks and the unpredictability of Trump’s doctrine, Kiev, backed by Europe, is going it alone, conducting a campaign of targeted attacks on Russian refineries, pipelines and energy infrastructure. In makeshift hangars across the country, self-taught engineers are painstakingly assembling drones and cruise missiles. Three years ago, none of them produced weapons; now they all belong to what is the first “Made in Ukraine” military industry since the Russian invasion. From the front lines or the Black Sea, these machines play a key role: slowing down the Russian advance, making every square meter occupied terribly expensive, and even driving warships away from the Ukrainian coast, writes “The Atlantic”.
But the most strategic development concerns long-range strikes. Now produced in large quantities, some Ukrainian drones can hit targets more than 1,000 kilometers away – deep into Russian territory. In late September, they hit the huge “Gazprom” plant in Astrakhan and key sections of oil pipelines – a serious blow to Russia’s supplies of gasoline and diesel. “It all started with the observation that Russia was suffering huge human losses, but not financial losses,” explains a long-range operations manager. “We need to exhaust the resources that finance their system and the war,” he further explained to the publication. Thus, targeting the oil industry became the leading focus.
This shift also corresponds to the weakening of Russian air defenses, often moved closer to the front line, leaving the territory unprotected. Since August, sixteen Russian refineries have been targeted, some repeatedly; oil terminals have exploded in Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, and pumping stations vital to exports have been put out of action.
The results are already being felt: Russian oil exports have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the conflict, Russia has been forced to impose internal restrictions, some gas stations have dried up even in the suburbs of Moscow, and images of queues are circulating on Russian social media. The drop in revenues is deepening so much that the Kremlin has been forced to admit in the state press that shortages are spreading throughout the country, including in Crimea.
This new form of self-managing “sanctions“ is being quietly supported by Europe. Berlin is pledging €9 billion to Ukraine, among other things, to boost domestic drone production. The European Union is also investing in the creation of a “Drone Alliance“ and now it is interested in Russia’s ghost fleet – those oil tankers flying false flags and operating outside any regulations. Several European countries are tackling the problem by monitoring and sanctioning these vessels, hoping to increase the price of Russian exports. Beyond the symbolic, Ukraine wants to create a real breakthrough and make the continuation of the war economically unsustainable for Moscow – while preserving the technological initiative to use drones. “The most effective sanctions are fires in Russian refineries, terminals, depots,” Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent televised address.
Faced with the American wait-and-see attitude and the limitations of Western measures, Ukrainian strategy is rethinking the war of tomorrow – a hybrid of industrial innovation, military campaign and state economic targeting. Three years after the invasion, local ingenuity and production are setting the pace of the war – and could change its outcome again.