After US President Donald Trump announced that he had sent a huge armada near Iran, US military experts began to speculate whether Trump really wants to overthrow the political leadership in Iran, as he did in Venezuela - or is using the military threat only as leverage to achieve a significantly better nuclear agreement.
Trump clearly wants to keep both options open. The warning of a devastating war across the region by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not impress him. "Of course Khamenei would say that", the US president said over the weekend. "But we sent the largest war fleet. I hope we can make a deal. If not, we'll find out if he was right."
Iran Considers Giving Up Nuclear Weapons - Under Certain Conditions
Trump first wants to wait to see if the Iranian leadership is ready for serious concessions. If not, military strikes could follow. According to media reports, the US and Israeli chiefs of staff met at the Pentagon on Friday to discuss possible scenarios.
Aboard Air Force One, reporters asked Trump if Iran was even inclined to a new nuclear deal. "I don't know", he replied, "but they are talking to us - and seriously."
For now, however, there are no direct talks between Iran and the US. Communication is conducted through intermediaries, mainly through Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.
In an interview with CNN, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that for direct dialogue, trust must first be restored. "We have lost trust in the United States as a negotiating partner. We need to overcome this distrust."
Araghchi described the negotiations through intermediaries as "fruitful" and assured that Iran is ready to give up nuclear weapons: "President Trump says "no nuclear weapons". We completely agree. This could be a very good agreement. Of course, in return, we expect the sanctions to be lifted.
"Many countries will be affected"
However, Trump is also insisting on ending Iran's ballistic missile program, as well as ending support for terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. On these issues, Tehran has so far shown no willingness to compromise. Foreign Minister Araghchi warned CNN that the failure of diplomatic efforts could have serious consequences. "If it comes to war, it will be a disaster for everyone. Many countries in the region will be affected. This could be very dangerous," Araghchi said, adding that Iran has learned lessons from the war in June.
American military experts also warn of the danger of the conflict escalating in the region. According to them, the cornered regime in Tehran is much more dangerous than the regime in Venezuela.