Europe is in a "geopolitical emergency". This is not the title of an apocalyptic film, but the diagnosis of French President Emmanuel Macron. In a coordinated media offensive in front of seven leading European publications, the owner of the Elysee Palace threw down the gauntlet not only to China, but also to Washington.
My main message is clear: Europe must stop being naive and start playing hard. And this goes through the money. Macron insists on a general issuance of debt - the so-called. Eurobonds to finance technological competition and defense.
"The EC's debt is lower than that of the US and China. Not taking advantage of this opportunity is a serious mistake," the French president categorically stated.
The goal is clear - challenging the hegemony of the dollar and creating financial independence.
The nuclear option in finance
Macron's remarks come at a time when another even more frightening scenario is being discussed in Brussels and Frankfurt - What would happen if Europe decided to use the most powerful economic weapon of all: selling US government debt?
It's a huge gamble. Europe holds around $3.8 trillion in US bonds - more than Japan and China combined. This is a lever of influence that could theoretically break the dollar and cause chaos in the US.
"This is the "nuclear option" in finance," financial analyst Kalin Georgiev of VershMark Finance told Bloomberg TV Bulgaria. Before him, such a code would have caused a media sensation and a global sensation.
Maptin Tappanov, director of "Debt instruments" in DeltaStock, is even more direct: "This would mean a financial war".
A coordinated sale would lead to a spike in interest rates overseas and serious losses for banks.
Why would the gun stay in the bag?
As tempting as it may sound for geopolitical strategists, the economic logic is start. Tsvetoslav Tsachev from "Elana Trading" I recall that even though these trillions of dollars may have an indirect impact, Europe has no interest in selling them, because it would realize huge losses.
"&Pri;etko Bulkov from BBP explained: "While Europe has a trade surplus with the US, it will maintain positive investment position towards American assets (...) No serious shocks are expected. Exposure to stocks may even increase".
Nothing more - economist Daniel Bacilev notes the important detail that most bonds are held by private investors. There is no mechanism by which Macron or Brussels can force them to press the "sell" button.
The real battle: Technology and the destroyers
If the financial apocalypse is postponed, then the trade and technology war is in the offing. Macron describes the Donald Trump administration as "openly anti-European" and warns that Washington will attack the EC for its attempts to regulate digital giants.
"When there is a clear act of aggression, we should not submit or seek understanding. We have been trying this strategy for months. It does not work", the French president said.
The recipe is familiar to me, but now it sounds more successful: "Steam up European". This is especially true for defense. Macron has claimed that the France-Germany-Spain Next Generation Extermination (FCAS) project is alive, despite rumors of problems between Paris and Berlin. He hopes to try to break through in talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.