EU leaders are gathering in Brussels on March 19 in the hope of granting a huge 90 billion euros loan to Kiev. The necessary funding is trapped by a standoff between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky, France24 reports.
Moscow's closest partner in the bloc, the Hungarian leader, has long resisted helping Kiev repel a Russian invasion, withholding EU aid and repeatedly imposing sanctions. This time, Orban is using a €90 billion loan as leverage in a dispute over the damage to an oil pipeline running through Ukraine that carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
As the Hungarian prime minister pivots to anti-European and anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of contested national elections on April 12, he appears determined to play hardball. "No oil, no money", he warned earlier this week. If President Zelensky wants to get his money from Brussels, then the "Družba" pipeline must be reopened, Orban stressed.
The weeks-long dispute has seen Hungary and landlocked Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs to the pipeline. Zelensky has called it "blackmail" .
The European Commission has moved to unblock the situation by sending a team to help restore oil transit, but Budapest has dismissed the initiative as "theatre" and refused to budge. It is a sign of an impending showdown in Brussels.
It is a familiar routine in Brussels, where Orban has delayed countless decisions on Ukraine and solutions have eventually been found - in one famous case, he walked out of the chamber while the bloc approved the start of membership talks with Kiev. But there is palpable frustration that Orban must abandon a loan he personally gave the green light to at a previous summit in December.
"Everyone wants this to be resolved," an EU diplomat summed up, noting that other capitals are "more or less fed up" with the Hungarian leader's behavior. A German government official described "a certain momentum" on the pipeline issue - seeing a chance for a breakthrough. "Will we make progress? I have strong doubts", said an EU diplomat, predicting that Orban "will not budge" from a position that appeals to his voters at home.
Making matters more complicated is that leaders are wary of offering Orban - who is trailing his main rival, Péter Magyar, in the polls - a chance to bolster his maverick image on the EU stage by publicly confronting him. If the impasse is not broken this week, the issue will likely be postponed until after the Hungarian elections, whatever their outcome.
It is unclear whether Ukraine can hold out until after the Hungarian elections. Facing a budget deficit four years after the start of the war, Kiev needs an influx of funds by early May - suggesting a decision on unlocking the EU loan by mid-April.
There have been claims of alternative solutions to help Ukraine stay afloat - but a second EU diplomat dismissed the idea. But they were quickly debunked. There are no transitional solutions or a Plan B, an EU diplomat noted.