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Ukraine's real blow to Russian oil exports

In just a few days, Ukraine has repeatedly hit Russian oil installations with drones. This will definitely make exports more difficult - and will greatly weaken the country financially.

Снимка: БГНЕС/ EPA

It was not only the Russian port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea that was attacked - Primorsk and Kirishi, also in the Leningrad region, key points for Russian oil exports, were also attacked. Ukrainian drones caused extensive damage, as can be seen from satellite images, ARD reports.

The German public media quoted Governor Alexander Drozdenko as saying: "Since March 22, our region has been on high alert. This is related to the unprecedented attacks by enemy drones on our industrial and transport infrastructure facilities.

Expert: one third of Russian oil exports affected

Speaking of "industrial and transport infrastructure facilities", the governor apparently has in mind the facilities for Russian oil exports, especially to Asia, ARD notes. Boris Aronstein, an independent expert on the oil industry, told the German public media that the capacity of the facilities is significantly limited.

Aronstein estimates that up to three million barrels of oil could have been exported from the three affected oil terminals daily. "This means that this is a real blow to Russia's export capacity, as between 30 and 40 percent of it has been affected."

A big financial loss for Russia

The Kremlin is silent when it comes to such figures. That is why "Reuters" cites unnamed industry sources, according to whom oil supplies from Ust-Luga were suspended on Wednesday last week due to the strikes.

This means heavy financial losses for Russia. ARD cites Creas, a renowned energy research institute based in Finland, according to which Russia received almost half a billion euros a day from oil exports in February. And this was before the increase in oil prices due to the US-Israeli war against the Iranian regime.

Repair of the facilities could take months

For energy expert Boris Aronshtein, the Ukrainian attacks on the three Russian oil export facilities were a wise move. They were "absolutely perfect - in terms of timing, targeting and damage caused".

It is unclear when Russia will be able to resume exports, Aronshtein points out. "If Ukraine continues these attacks, Russia will not be able to repair the facilities in the foreseeable future." Even if Ukraine stops the attacks, it could take weeks or months for exports to resume.

The Russian domestic market will also suffer from this, Aronshtein suggests, quoted by ARD. Fuel prices in Russia will also continue to rise - even more than they have increased during the current global energy crisis.

Author: Björn Blaschke (ARD)