With their massive drone attacks deep inside Russia, the Ukrainians are putting Moscow under pressure. "The strategic changes undertaken by the Ukrainians are paying off", says military expert Fabian Hoffmann.
"The decisive factor is the amount of weapons with which Ukraine hits targets in Russia. And Moscow should continue to expect such attacks," military expert Fabian Hoffmann told the German public-law television ZDF. According to him, the new means and strategic changes undertaken by the Ukrainians are yielding results in the war - Kiev's recent successes are mainly due to the changed attack pattern.
Thanks to drones with a long range of up to 2,000 kilometers, the Ukrainian military can also hit targets in Moscow or deep in the interior of Russia. This gives Ukraine the opportunity to damage sensitive Russian infrastructure, Hoffmann, who is involved in strategic research at the University of Oslo, told the German public media.
The quantity increases the probability of hitting targets
He emphasizes that the large number of launched drones, which Ukraine has thanks to increased production capacities, plays a decisive role. "Over the past two years, Ukraine has greatly increased the production of long-range drones and mini-cruise missiles - so if before they were launched a few hundred per month, now they are several thousand." The expert points out that this is also due to financial support from Germany, Norway and other countries. "Meanwhile, Russia is being subjected to such large-scale attacks with drones and cruise missiles that its air defenses are finding it very difficult to react."
The expert also notes to ZDF that at a price of between 20,000 and 50,000 euros, long-range drones are significantly cheaper than cruise or ballistic missiles costing millions. This is also a reason that allows Ukraine to launch many drones at the same time. The quantity increases the probability of hitting targets even in the presence of solid air defense.
The shortcomings of Russian air defense
According to Hoffman, in the context of the attacks, Russia also has to contend with structural problems. Over the past five to six months, the air defense has been severely damaged, he says. "Launch pads, radars and other infrastructure are being systematically attacked and destroyed."
For years, Russia's large territory has been a strategic advantage, not least because important infrastructure was safely located deep in the country. But now this is becoming a problem - the few available air defense systems must be distributed over larger areas. "This naturally creates larger gaps in the defense, which Ukraine can exploit and is currently doing very effectively," Hoffmann explains to ZDF.
In addition, there is evidence that the missiles of the Russian air defense are not enough. Russia needs to produce more and set priorities - where to use the limited human, industrial and material resources. "The military economy is running at full speed", says Hoffman.
Ukraine should also increase pressure on the economy at the front
Ukraine could purposefully exploit these weaknesses, the military expert recommends. And it's not just about military successes at the front. "The best thing Ukraine can do is not only harm Russian units at the front, but also hit Russian capabilities deep inside the country."
The expert explains that he is referring to industry and the economy, and the goal is to strike at the financing of the war. If military material is damaged during production or transportation, it will not be able to reach the front at all, Hoffman points out. In addition, with its attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukraine could harm Russia's oil and gas revenues.
"This will naturally affect Russian capital, the finances for waging the war," the expert points out. According to him, it is this combination of military and economic pressure that could be decisive.