The US national debt will likely reach its ceiling of $41.1 trillion between late winter and mid-summer of 2027, according to a report published by the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center.
As noted in the report, the US debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025, from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion. “Since then, the amount of debt subject to these restrictions has increased by $2.9 trillion, more than half of the increased borrowing limit,“ the report said.
“According to estimates by the Bipartisan Policy Center, unless Congress takes action, the United States is likely to hit the debt ceiling again sometime between late winter and mid-summer 2027.“
After that, the report said, the Washington administration would be able to take extraordinary financial measures for approximately six to nine months to avoid a default. After that, the United States “will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations in full and on time“. To prevent this, Congress and the Washington administration will likely have to decide on a further increase in the debt ceiling.
The center's experts note that one of the key factors determining the timing of setting the debt ceiling is the cost of a military operation against Iran. According to the latest Pentagon estimates, this cost has reached $ 29 billion. Potential revenues from tariffs imposed by Washington, as well as potential government spending to compensate for them, will also affect this.
The US national debt is currently approximately $ 39.2 trillion. In March, it exceeded $ 39 trillion for the first time in history, and in October 2025 it will exceed $ 38 trillion.