Russia plans to launch a large-scale campaign of strikes against the energy infrastructure of the city of Kiev in the coming weeks.
On August 8, the Center for Strategic Communications of Ukraine reported, citing US intelligence, that Moscow is preparing to conduct a large-scale campaign of strikes against the energy infrastructure of the city of Kiev before Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24.
This was summarized by the Institute for the Study of War.
According to information, Russia may resort to its strategic reserve of ballistic missiles to inflict maximum damage by August 24.
Russia has launched its campaign of strikes against the energy infrastructure of Ukraine in the fall of 2025 and the winter of 2025-2026 in early September 2025.
Nowadays, it is possible that Russia is seeking to launch its 2026-2027 strike campaign in August to take advantage of the ongoing shortage of ballistic missile interceptors in Ukraine.
On August 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Ukraine is receiving almost three times fewer anti-missile interceptors compared to the beginning of 2026.
Russian strikes on the energy infrastructure of the city of Kyiv in the coming weeks will hinder Ukrainian efforts to restore and strengthen the energy facilities that Russia damaged in the winter of 2025-2026.
Ukraine is working to restore and strengthen its already damaged energy infrastructure in anticipation of the anticipated Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in the winter of 2026-2027.
Russia may to attempt to launch its energy infrastructure strikes earlier than expected in 2026 to disrupt these ongoing Ukrainian efforts.
Russia will likely continue to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure through the coming winter, and these strikes will likely be more destructive after Russia disrupted Ukrainian efforts to reinforce the facilities in August.
Russian strikes against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure in August may force Russia to adjust the scale and composition of its strike packages. In the summer of 2026, Russia is conducting coordinated strike campaigns against Ukrainian gas stations, port infrastructure, and logistics.
The upcoming strikes against energy infrastructure may force Russia to reduce the intensity or cease these other strikes, or to increase the scale of its strikes to cover a wider range of targets.
However, Russia has largely used Geran drones for strikes against port infrastructure, so it can continue with such drone strikes while using its ballistic missiles to strike against energy infrastructure.