Pro-European candidate Rafal Trzaskowski is leading by a small margin after the first round of the presidential election in Poland, the British newspaper Financial Times reports. According to forecasts, Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw and candidate of Donald Tusk's ruling Civic Coalition party, received 30.8% of the vote, while his opposition opponent Karol Nawrocki received 29.1%. The two will face each other in a second round, which will be held on June 1, BTA reports.
The gap between the two is smaller than expected, which calls into question the results of the sociological surveys, which previously gave Trzaskowski a lead of about five percentage points. Analysts warn that the battle for the undecided votes will be very fierce.
Despite a number of scandals during the campaign, Nawrocki managed to mobilize support, including from voters of the far-right candidate Slawomir Menzen, who came in third with 15.4%. Nawrocki was chosen by Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, and is considered a key player in blocking Prime Minister Tusk's reforms.
A victory for Trzaskowski would allow the pro-European government to continue with reforms that were halted by outgoing President Andrzej Duda, also a PiS representative. On the other hand, if Nawrocki wins, it could lead to political instability and a stalemate in government.
The election campaign was dominated by issues of national security and relations with NATO and the United States. Nawrocki claims he can secure better military support from Washington and has met with President Donald Trump at the White House, although he has not received explicit support from Trump's camp.
Trzaskowski, for his part, must mobilize progressive voters, especially women, who played a key role in the 2023 parliamentary elections. He promises support for abortion rights and LGBT rights, which contrasts with PiS's conservative policies.
After the results were announced, Trzaskowski said: "I am very happy to have won the first round, but there is still a lot of work ahead of us." Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on social media that "the next two weeks will decide the future of Poland" and called for unity and mobilization.
On the other hand, Nawrocki called on far-right candidate Menzen and his supporters to support him in the second round to "save Poland" from Tusk's "monocracy."
The elections are crucial not only for Poland's future, but also for the stability of the region in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the growing influence of populism in Europe.
The official results of the first round are expected in the coming days, and attention is already turning to the decisive second round on June 1.