The transatlantic partnership with the US - as we know it - is coming to an end. The same applies to military cooperation, warn analysts in the "Peace Report 2025". What else does the document say?
Their vision of the future is bleak. "Who or what can still save the peace?" is the question that German peace and conflict analysts ask in their Peace Report 2025.
Wars in Ukraine, the Gaza Strip and Sudan, over 122 million displaced people and numerous armed conflicts around the world: since 1987, leading experts from four research institutes have been analyzing global conflicts and making recommendations to politicians. This year's report is one of the most pessimistic ever.
"In recent years, the Russian attack on Ukraine and the deliberate destruction of peace and security in Europe have been the focus of our analyses," says Christopher Daze of the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research. But things have gotten worse since then. "The United States has added another factor of uncertainty".
Sharp criticism of Donald Trump
The main focus of this year's report is political changes in the United States. "Donald Trump and his MAGA movement have managed to turn the world's oldest democracy into an authoritarian regime in a very short time and without much resistance," the researchers write.
They will also continue to pursue "the destruction of liberal institutions and achievements" at the international level. "In liberal democracies, authoritarian rulers and dictators are courted and right-wing populist movements are supported". Conflict researcher Daze sees a danger of "authoritarian contagion". And in Europe, worrying trends are already being observed, such as the undermining of international jurisdiction, the questioning of academic freedom and the interference in the autonomy of churches, for example.
Is this the end of NATO?
The transatlantic partnership with the United States "as we know it, is coming to an end", the report concludes. According to the researchers, this also applies to military cooperation. "Trust in NATO's defense promise is shaken, and the rapprochement between the United States and Russia threatens to be at the expense not only of Ukraine, but also of European interests.”
This poses a direct threat to Germany and Europe. "The problem is that nothing works without NATO at the moment, and that's why nobody wants to talk about the end of NATO, even though its core values are long gone" says Daze, who does not contradict the claim that NATO is dead. "We are working towards overcoming NATO", he says, which means working with NATO for as long as possible while strengthening European capabilities.
Europeans must unite
The report recommends that the German government pursue "a transparent, phased plan for the expansion and integration of European defense structures". However, the EU is currently still far from achieving this goal. "What we are currently seeing in the EU is not a strengthening of European defence capabilities within the political framework of the European Union, but rather a strengthening of the national defence capabilities of the EU member states", says Ursula Schröder of the Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research at the University of Hamburg.
Security should also not be understood solely in military terms. The security architecture also includes "arms control, confidence-building measures and diplomacy", emphasizes Konrad Schetter of the International Centre for Conflict Research in Bonn. An effective development policy is also important. Moreover, the strengthening of defense policy and armaments should not become an "uncontrolled license to export weapons around the world".
Stop arms exports to Israel
In their report, the researchers express particular concern about the global breakdown of international law. They note that there is an increasing "dehumanization of wars", in which the protection of civilians is largely neglected, hospitals and schools are turned into direct military targets, and humanitarian aid is blocked and used for political purposes. These processes are very evident in Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas.
The researchers call for an end to arms exports to IsraelPhoto: REUTERS
The researchers are horrified by what is happening in Gaza, where more than 53,000 people have already died and the territory has been devastated to a large extent. The report insists that it is "more urgent than ever" to stop the export of weapons that could be used against the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Israel is "blatantly" violating international humanitarian law and exceeding the limits of "legitimate self-defense".
Between October 2023 and May 2025, Germany has authorized arms exports worth almost half a billion euros. The deliveries included firearms, ammunition, weapon parts, special equipment for the army and navy, electronic equipment and special armored vehicles.
No invitations for Netanyahu to visit Germany
The report calls on the German government to respect international law - this refers to Friedrich Merz's announced intention to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Berlin, despite the International Criminal Court having issued a warrant for his arrest.
The Federal Chancellor has promised Netanyahu to find "ways and means" by which he "can visit Germany without being arrested". The peace report states: "International law takes precedence over national interest". This would "rule out a state visit to Germany by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu until further notice".
The researchers also call on Germany to work towards recognizing a Palestinian state "in the medium term". A lasting solution to the Palestinian conflict would in no way limit Israel's right to a Jewish state within secure borders, the authors of the "Peace Report 2025" point out.