A senior Ukrainian official has reported that the Russian military intends to seize half of Ukraine by the end of 2026. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to make such great progress in such a short time, given Russia's current offensive capabilities and assuming that the flow of Western aid to Ukraine will continue.
This was warned by the Institute for the Study of War.
The Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian President, Colonel Pavlo Palisa, told reporters on June 5 that Russia is likely aiming to fully seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by September 1, 2025.
In addition, the Kremlin is seeking to create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of 2025.
Palisa also stated that Russia intends to occupy Ukrainian territory along the eastern (left) bank of the Dnieper River and seize Odessa and Mykolaiv regions by the end of 2026, thereby depriving Ukraine of access to the Black Sea. sea.
Western sources published on June 4 and 6 the map that Palisa reportedly presented to American officials and journalists.
The map shows that Russia intends to seize an additional 222,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory and hold a total of 336,300 sq km by the end of 2026 - almost double the approximately 162,000 sq km that Russia held by the first month of the initial full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The total area of Ukraine is approximately 603,500 sq km.
The Russian military command's supposed goals for 2026 far exceed Russia's official territorial claims and aim to seize a significant part of Central Ukraine and most of Southern and Eastern Ukraine.
Russia's alleged plans for military campaigns for 2025 and 2026 are consistent with long-standing Russian territorial goals and recent statements by pro-Kremlin voices in the information space.
The Russian military will likely not be able to achieve its alleged 2026 goals, given the significant losses of manpower and materiel that Russian forces have suffered in the last three years of the war, and the inability of Russian forces to achieve operational maneuver on the battlefield.
Putin's theory of victory depends on Western alliance support for Ukraine, with abandoning Ukraine a necessary condition for achieving such a scale of offensive.
On the night of June 5-6, Russian forces launched the second largest series of missile and drone strikes of the war.
On the night of June 5-6, Ukrainian forces launched a series of drone strikes on Russian military facilities, airfields, and sites. from the defense-industrial base.
The Central Bank of Russia has cut its key interest rate for the first time since September 2022, possibly prematurely due to increased pressure from the Kremlin to demonstrate economic stability.