Israel justified its attack on targets in Iran by saying that Tehran is very close to having a nuclear bomb. This would pose a huge threat to Israel, as the Iranian regime has repeatedly stated that it wants to destroy Israel.
Tehran insists that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only, but much of the international community sees military potential in it. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Sunday that Tehran's nuclear program is an "existential threat" to Israel and Europe, but described diplomacy as the best path to finding a solution. German Foreign Minister Wadeful, for his part, stressed that Berlin, Paris and London are ready for talks with Tehran in the name of de-escalating the situation.
How far has Iran's nuclear program reached?
Civil nuclear programs are aimed at building nuclear power plants for electricity generation. In military nuclear programs, the goal is the development of nuclear warheads. The Iranian regime has repeatedly stated that its nuclear program is exclusively for civilian purposes, and most experts, including Western intelligence services, currently believe that Iran is not actually developing nuclear weapons for the time being.
The cause for concern is the level of uranium enrichment reached by Iran. According to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran currently has over 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent – much more than would be needed for a civilian nuclear program and dangerously close to the level needed for weapons development. At 90 percent enrichment, these 400 kg would be enough for about ten nuclear weapons.
“According to the IAEA, Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment to 60 percent, while missile tests are increasing“, security expert Hans Jakob Schindler told DW. “One could say that Iran wants to improve its negotiating position with the United States, or it could be stated that Tehran is moving very quickly towards creating an atomic bomb.“ Negotiations with the United States have been frozen due to the current escalation.
There is currently no evidence that Iran has reached 90 percent enrichment. But experts warn that based on the available quantities and its technical capabilities, the country could pass this threshold relatively quickly. Just a few days before Israel's attack, Iran announced that it was starting to operate another uranium enrichment facility. However, enriched uranium is not a nuclear bomb in itself. Iran would also need to have a functioning nuclear warhead and a missile to deliver it to its target.
What damage has the Israeli military inflicted?
In its attacks on Tehran, Israel targeted nuclear facilities, as well as members of the military leadership, as well as scientists associated with the nuclear program. Satellite images show varying degrees of damage to Iran's two most important uranium research and enrichment facilities - Natanz and Isfahan. The IAEA confirmed that both bases were damaged. But it is unclear how difficult it will be for Iran to repair the damage.
Walter Posch, an expert on Iran issues at the Vienna Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research, believes that the damage is “serious“: “More important than the killed generals are certainly the scientists of the nuclear program. They have worked on it almost since its inception and have the relevant scientific and institutional knowledge“. Posch points out that they played a key role, which is why the damage to the academic and applied sciences is a heavy blow.
Why does Iran have a nuclear program?
Iran's nuclear program dates back to the 1950s, when the then pro-Western government began its civilian nuclear projects with the help of the United States. After the Iranian revolution in 1979 brought to power a fundamentalist, anti-Western government, international concern grew that Tehran might use its nuclear program for military purposes.
In 2002, international inspectors discovered highly enriched uranium at Natanz, which was followed by international sanctions. In 2015, Iran reached a landmark nuclear deal with the United States and other Western countries - to limit its nuclear program and impose strict controls on the easing of sanctions.
During his first term, however, US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the deal. The US imposed new, comprehensive sanctions on Iran. In response, Iran gradually stopped adhering to the terms and increased uranium enrichment far beyond the 3.67 percent limit agreed in 2015.
Since the start of Trump's second term, efforts to reach an agreement between Washington and Tehran have been renewed. Another meeting was scheduled to take place in Oman these days, but was canceled due to the current escalation.
Author: Andreas Illmer