Europe must be prepared for an escalation of the conflict with Russia in the Baltic Sea. Security expert Helge Adrians from the Berlin-based "Science and Politics" foundation believes that a significant increase in Russian tankers from the so-called "shadow fleet" in the North and Baltic Seas is imminent after the adoption of the latest EU sanctions package against Russian gas and oil exports. In other words: further escalation of the conflict with Russia in the Baltic Sea region is inevitable.
At the same time, Russia continues to arm itself and strengthen its military power in the region, for example on Lake Ladoga near St. Petersburg, Adrians points out, referring to a study by "Science and Politics".
Over 60 checkpoints off the coast of Denmark
Since the beginning of the year, Denmark has stepped up controls against the so-called "shadow fleet" of Russia - tankers whose ownership is difficult to establish. The Danish Maritime Authority confirmed to DW that since February, more than 60 oil tankers have been inspected near the Danish coastal town of Skagen. Among them were ships from the shadow fleet in question.
Two tankers were detained due to security, environmental and seafarer protection issues, the Danish Maritime Authority reported. The increased control by the Danish security authorities is in line with EU sanctions against the Russian oil economy, the revenues from which Russia continues to wage its offensive war against Ukraine.
Shadow fleet: environmental risk
According to international maritime law, coastal states are actually required to guarantee freedom of navigation. The threshold at which a country like Denmark can control, inspect and possibly prevent a ship from continuing its journey in its exclusive economic zone is very high, Christian Bøger from the University of Copenhagen told DW.
It can be crossed when "the ship has no flag or if yesterday it was sailing under the Panamanian flag and today under the Liberian flag. In this case, the authorities can assume that it does not actually belong to a particular country, which is prohibited under international maritime law." Control measures can also be taken if the vessel is considered to pose a threat to the environment.
That is why the Danish Maritime Authority refers in particular to safety and environmental standards when inspecting ships in front of Skagen. “The measures are being taken in response to the movement of older ships transporting oil through the Danish Straits, which poses an increased risk and concern for maritime safety, seafarers and the environment.”
"Dynamics of provocations" with Russia
According to Russia, these reasons are fabricated. In late May, the spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that Russia would continue to protect shipping “by all legal means”. The deployment of security forces on ships under Russian command was being considered.
Christian Buger of the University of Copenhagen warns of a possible spiral of escalation in the Baltic Sea. “Ultimately, both sides want to see how the other will react.”
Europe should prepare for “provocation dynamics - not just at sea. I think we will also see an increasingly intensive use of drones”, says Buger.
More drones over the Baltic Sea?
Denmark has so far bought ten of the so-called sailing drones for maritime surveillance from the US. “These are very flexible platforms that can be equipped with various electronic intelligence sensors and cameras”, explains Buger.
At the same time, he and his research team are registering an increasing number of drones of unclear origin, but which are assumed to be Russian. “These incidents are very likely to increase in frequency,” says Buger. “We can imagine, for example, that such drones damage a wind power plant, which has the potential for escalation."
The scientist does not rule out something like this happening this year.
Author: Frank Hoffman