After his meeting with Donald Trump, Putin again uttered the standard - and key in his lexicon of recent years - phrase about the need to "eliminate the root causes of the conflict". In essence, this is an ultimatum. Ukraine must agree to a number of preliminary conditions: an official refusal of the territories occupied by Russia, including those not yet conquered by Russia, as well as plans to join NATO and deploy foreign military bases, plus coordination of foreign and security policy with the Kremlin. And only after the fulfillment or at least the promise to fulfill these requirements will Moscow think about a ceasefire.
The historic meeting of Trump and Zelensky
Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected these requirements in the past. Therefore, the logical question is - what will happen this time. On Monday, we have a chance to find out. At the talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky scheduled for August 18, Donald Trump can either ask him to make unilateral concessions - and receive a refusal; or fulfill his earlier promises and announce a new series of sanctions and other measures to put pressure on Russia. So far, there are no signs that the US president is ready for such a move. Zelensky must understand this dilemma. I assume that he will offer Trump some measures that, on the one hand, will be able to move the situation away from the deadlock, and on the other, will not be unilateral concessions.
This option for the development of events has a plus, especially from the point of view of the American president - the negotiations will not end, and Trump will be able to continue dreaming of the laurels of a peacemaker and the Nobel Prize. I am convinced that in this case, too, Putin will respond with talks about the "root causes". He is sure that both time and demographic superiority over Ukraine are on his side.
Furthermore, despite Washington's threats, Putin is expected to visit Delhi by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Therefore, the sale of Russian oil to India may continue. Moscow may have to reduce the price even further to keep the Indians in its orbit. Let's not forget that Xi Jinping has no qualms about supporting the Russian dictatorship.
Free choice at the expense of territories?
Will Ukraine be able to rely on its European allies after the Alaska meeting? Judging by the statement of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, it will be able to. Since it seems that the possibility of collective security guarantees for Ukraine along the lines of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty - but without joining the Alliance - is being discussed. The idea itself is not bad, although it does not solve the entire complex of problems created by Russian aggression. To do this, first of all, several NATO allies must agree to conclude a treaty of military alliance and mutual assistance with Kiev. This will not be easy at all, including for domestic political reasons.
First, how can one explain to an ordinary German, Frenchman, Pole or Briton why they and their children should be ready to die for Poltava or Kharkov? Second, for the fullness of the guarantees, foreign military personnel must be permanently stationed on the territory of Ukraine, and in considerable numbers. And third, these guarantees will have real meaning only if Ukraine's path to NATO and the EU remains open. The European participants in the Alliance have already made such a statement.
It is not unlikely that Zelensky will choose this option. If the scheme also receives American support, Putin will be faced with the following prospect - to receive de facto, but not de jure, control over part of the conquered Ukrainian lands, but in return to give up hopes of putting Ukraine's future under Kremlin control. It would also be interesting to consider an option in which any attempt by Russia to change the status quo would lead to Ukraine's accelerated admission to NATO. For now, it is difficult for me to imagine that the Russian dictator will give up his dream of complete control over Ukraine. And if this does happen in some form, it means that Putin and his Russia are much weaker than is commonly believed.
Author: Konstantin Eggert