The Kremlin continues to categorically reject US-backed security guarantees for Ukraine and demonstrates its continued intention to establish control over the entire country, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has rejected attempts by the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with reliable security guarantees. On August 20, he stated via his English-language X account (formerly Twitter) that “Russia has clearly stated: there will be no NATO troops as peacekeepers“ and that Moscow will not accept such arrangements. According to him, Ukraine does not need security guarantees – in contradiction to the Trump administration's position that the country needs robust international defenses.
State Duma deputy Alexei Zhuravlev said on August 21 that Ukraine should follow the example of Finland after World War II - to become a neutral state and cede part of its territory. He stressed that the negotiations would be conducted on the basis of the current situation on the battlefield. His colleague Dmitry Belik supported this position, arguing that Kiev is ignoring the realities on the ground. The Kremlin often uses the term "realities on the ground" to emphasize its alleged military superiority and demand concessions from Ukraine.
The chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, Grigory Karasin, said that the West should realize Russia's concerns about its strategic security vis-à-vis Europe and NATO - an issue that he said undermines the viability of the entire negotiation process. Moscow continues to insist that the 2022 Istanbul talks are the only acceptable starting point for any future negotiations, demanding that it retain its veto power over military aid to Ukraine. This would leave the country vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
At the same time, the Kremlin is stepping up diplomatic efforts to attract support from India, which analysts say reflects Moscow's concern about the impact of secondary sanctions.
On August 20-21, Russia launched its third major attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, hitting western regions and causing serious damage to civilian infrastructure. However, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex continues to innovate and increase the production of long-range weapons.
The Russian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the replacement of Colonel General Alexander Lapin with Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov as commander of the Northern Group of Forces and the Leningrad Military District.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces advanced in the Novopavlivka area, while Russian troops noted an advance near Chasov Yar.