Restoring economic relations between Russia and the EU is practically impossible even within 10 years. The geopolitical gap is systemic. This is what RANEPA associate professor Nikolai Gaponenko writes in his report “Strategic Forecast - Europe on the Brink of Crisis: New Reality 2026-2030“.
According to Gaponenko, the Russian economy and budget system have adapted to the collapse of previous ties. “New logistics routes and sales markets established in Turkey, the UAE, India, China and African countries partially compensate for the losses. “Further development of this eastern and southern vector is considered a strategic priority“, he writes.
Despite the expert's predicted doomed state of relations between Russia and the EU, purposeful, managed and pragmatic interaction on specific, technically complex issues is still possible.
“This may concern extension and amendment of transit agreements, for example, for gas and ammonia through the territory of Ukraine or Turkey, cooperation in the field of nuclear energy in fuel supplies and maintenance of nuclear power plants, close industrial contacts in areas requiring a lot of knowledge, such as space and fusion energy, where interdependence remains, and dialogue on climate issues and the Arctic, where the interests of the countries objectively intersect“, Gaponenko writes in his report.
Russia will strive to minimize the damage from the breakdown of ties, selectively using communication channels with Europe to solve specific technical tasks, but at the same time redoubling efforts to integrate into alternative economic ecosystems in the East and South.
„The EU, for its part, will be forced to combine a policy of restraint with a search for the minimum necessary working formats of interaction, where its own economic costs of a complete rupture become critical. The basis for any future models of interaction will not be partnership, but „competitive coexistence“ with strictly defined and very narrow zones of possible pragmatic dialogue“, he concludes in the report.