Deterioration of the education system, expressed in an increase in the percentage of unenrolled students, poor test results, exams, national and international competitions, poor financial condition of school units, low motivation of teachers and professors. This is the main feature in the next 10 years for Bulgaria, according to a national expert study entitled "Ten years, ten risks facing Bulgaria", conducted by the "Citizens' Initiative Bulgaria 2050".
In second place, the interviewed specialists place a further deterioration of the demographic situation in the country. The third position concerns the unreformed and ineffective health care system.
In the TOP 5 risks, the impossibility of our country to deal with corruption continues to appear, as well as the increasing trend of disinformation and manipulation of public opinion.
The sixth place concerns political instability, where the main danger is the onset of a crisis of statehood
Increasing distrust in the rule of law is the seventh risk highlighted by prominent specialists from various fields of economic and scientific life in our country.
The remaining three risks in the TOP 10 are: deepening social polarization of society; negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on Bulgaria and loss of national identity, expressed in the process of de-Bulgarianization of young generations and alienation of broad ethnic and social groups from the Bulgarian nation.
„Until now, there is no comprehensive document that would systematize and assess all the long-term risks facing the Bulgarian state,” explains Prof. Borisov. The presented study aims to fill this gap by identifying the most important risks facing Bulgaria that may occur in the next 10 years. It summarizes the opinions of experts from various fields and is made through a questionnaire, covering 21 potential risks in the field of economic development, the demographic situation, technological progress, social aspects, the political situation, the environment, the influence of external factors and others. The popular method of expert assessments was used to assess the risks. The methodology for determining their rating includes risk assessments according to two criteria – probability of occurrence and significance.
In Dr. Saykov's opinion, it is hardly a surprise that the “called“ places are held by the education troika – demography - health care. Their interrelationship and conditioning has been explained many times. Quality education and well-functioning healthcare are primary factors for dealing with the demographic crisis. Our rise in the UN human development ranking can only be on the shoulders of more, better prepared and more motivated professionals in all professions. And without anticipatory development, we can expect that the quantitative composition and qualitative characteristics of the Bulgarian population will only go down. The role of health care in increasing birth rates and reducing premature mortality hardly needs explaining. It is also important to stop migration or to accelerate it.
In the presented survey, education came out on top of the ranking. Obviously, the experts believe that of all the critically important systems in the country, the educational system is most at risk of continued decline with all the resulting dire consequences for the nation's development. The pessimism seems to be justified after 35 years of continuous “reforms”, the indisputable result of which is the ever-lower educational level of young people graduating from Bulgarian schools and universities. The coincidence in the opinions of the Bulgarian experts is indicative.
Healthcare is another social system whose mention goes hand in hand with the word “reform”. An indicator of its emptying of content is the fact that pouring more and more money into public health does not lead to its improvement. The opinion of the experts shows that reversing the negative trend in the future becomes more and more difficult.
The following several risks are related to the inefficient functioning of representative democracy and public administration. They are: corruption (No. 4), the crisis of statehood (No. 6), distrust in the rule of law (No. 7).
The political system and public administration can claim to be the father of two other risks: the disinformation and manipulation of public opinion (#5) and the loss of national identity (#10), although the responsibility is shared with the sphere of culture .
It is interesting to note that only one of the considered basic risks related to the socio-economic development of Bulgaria made it into the Top 10. This is the deepening social polarization of society, ranked eighth.
It is common knowledge that Bulgaria continues to be firmly anchored at the bottom of the European Union in terms of its economic and technological development. Judging by the results of the survey, it can be assumed that, according to the experts, the reasons for this lag are rooted in a number of the risks they indicated at the top of the ranking, such as the failure of education, corruption, the crisis of statehood, the lack of the rule of law. By removing their negative influence, the Bulgarian economy has a chance to reveal its full potential and to move sharply forward. An interesting direction for future analyzes is the question of whether we can effectively counter the risks of the first ten without a qualitative leap in our economic and technological development.
The negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on Bulgaria is ranked ninth. Thus, on the one hand, experts give importance to the influence of international factors on the development of a country of the rank of Bulgaria. On the other hand, they make it very clear that our problems are primarily domestic and their solution should not be sought abroad, but within the country. “The Provincial“ nature of the dangers before us stands out clearly when compared with the top ten risks facing the world, assessed by international experts in a report for the Davos forum held at the beginning of the year. Half of the global risks are related to negative processes in the planet's environment. Another three directly or indirectly result from the incorrect use of modern technologies. The positive conclusion here is that since the great risks facing Bulgaria are primarily due to incompetent, inefficient and corrupt governance, the fight to prevent them must be in the hands of Bulgarian society. Overcoming the sense of predestination can lead to the rise of basic social systems and the nation as a whole.