The termination of transit supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine after 2024 due to the expiration of a bilateral contract could create risks for fuel supplies to Ukraine itself. This opinion was expressed by the director of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Mario Holzner, quoted by the newspaper Financial Times.
„Europe will start the winter with almost full gas storages, but the suspension of supplies through Ukraine will obviously create more problems for the landlocked Central European countries,”, he believes.
„This is also a risky decision for Ukraine itself,” Holzner noted, adding that in addition to the loss of transit fees, closing the pipeline could “even jeopardize gas supplies for Ukraine itself, if its pipeline infrastructure“ suffered from hostilities.
Earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated the significant risk of a complete cessation of Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine after 2024, as the gas transit contract Russia's agreement with Ukraine expires at the end of this year. The suspension of transit will affect some countries of Central and Eastern Europe the most.
At the same time, the suspension of Ukrainian transit, according to the IEA, will not pose an immediate threat to the security of supplies for Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, given their sufficient storage capacity, the interconnection of gas pipeline systems and indirect access to the global market of LNG (via receiving terminals in Germany and Italy).
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, earlier announced that Kyiv will not renew the agreement with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas, which expires at the end of 2024. At the same time, he said that after the expiration of the contract, Ukraine , together with the EU, will decide on the transit of Russian gas through its territory to Europe. Earlier, experts also noted that the extension of the transit agreement is unlikely given the political situation, but EU countries will still be able to continue buying gas from the Russian Federation through auctions with capacity reservations and moving the delivery point to gas.