The US Department of Energy has lowered its 2024 Brent oil price forecast y. by 2.4% - to 80.89 USD from 82.8 USD per barrel, according to a report by the Ministry's Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The department noted that the oil price forecast has been reduced amid a projected drop in demand in 2025. The US Department of Energy expects quotes to decline in 2025 due to reduced demand by an average of 7 USD, up to USD 78 per barrel.
The US Department of Energy stressed that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East has not affected global oil supplies, so the forecast does not reflect the risks of supply disruptions. However, the department acknowledges that further escalation of the Middle East conflict increases the risks of oil supply disruptions and price volatility. “At the same time, we estimate that significant additional volumes of production capacity are now available that could be brought to market in the event of a supply disruption,” the US Department of Energy added.
The price of WTI oil is forecast to be USD 76.91 per barrel in 2024 and USD 73.13 per barrel in 2025.
In addition, the US Department of Energy slightly lowered its 2024 forecast for domestic oil production by 13,000 barrels per day (b/d), to 13.22 million b/d. Estimated domestic oil production volumes in 2025 have been reduced by 130,000 barrels per day to 13.54 million barrels per day.