The policy of the new US administration in foreign trade with China and on the issue of taxes and rates may have a negative impact on Turkey and the regional market. This is the opinion of the economic publication Dünya.
US President-elect Donald Trump previously stated that he may increase tariffs on imports from China to 50% and to 20% on all other imports.
The publication notes that most likely in such a situation “American companies will restructure their supply chains around countries with lower tariffs“. At the same time, there is a risk that Europe will retaliate against the high US tariffs and some anti-American trade bloc will be formed. But the threat remains that China will direct its products that are not sold in the US to other markets, including Turkey, aggressively dumping and creating serious competitive pressure on local economies.
Trump's fiscal policy, as Dünya writes, also carries risks for a number of countries, including Turkey. His promised tax cuts are aimed at stimulating economic growth within the US, but at the same time increasing the budget deficit. It is believed that this will be fought by issuing government bonds and raising interest rates.
Raising interest rates means increasing external borrowing costs for developing countries, including Turkey. This situation, combined with the strengthening of the dollar, may negatively affect the balance in the republic's economy. In the meantime, the effect of these measures will be postponed until 2026. due to the fact that the bond issue is included in the budget, the approval of which takes a long time.
Dünya notes that among the Turkish public there are optimistic expectations from the period of Trump's leadership, but this is “dangerous optimism“. The newspaper calls to recall “the discrepancies between Trump's promises during his first term and their implementation“, as well as Trump's unexpected steps that could “destroy financial markets and diplomatic relations“. In this regard, the publication calls for caution in assessing the prospects for Trump's second term, as they remain quite unclear.