On May 6, the European Commission published a roadmap for a complete refusal from Russian gas. Although it would be more correct to call the presented document a plan for introducing a complete embargo on Russian energy resources.
In the gas segment, the plan provides for the introduction by the end of 2025 of a ban on signing new contracts for the purchase of Russian gas, as well as the termination of all current short-term (spot) contracts. Also, by the beginning of 2026, the countries that will be members of the EU must submit national plans for refusing from Russian energy supplies. And by 2027, it is proposed to ban the import of gas from Russia under long-term contracts, recalls ag. TASS. These restrictions apply to both pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
It is significant that the European Commission has included in the roadmap, presented as a refusal to buy Russian gas, a suspension of Russian oil imports, as well as a ban on cooperation in the field of nuclear fuel. By the end of 20278, it is planned to introduce a ban on the import of natural uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials from Russia.
Despite the fact that European countries have been importing Soviet, and then Russian, gas for over 50 years, in recent decades the European Union has been putting pressure on our supplies in every possible way. Previously, discrimination against Russian gas was justified by antitrust regulations. After 2022, the European Commission openly speaks of the need not only to reduce methane supplies from Russia, but also to completely abandon them. However, they have not yet managed to impose a ban on the purchase of our gas. The reduction in supplies occurred gradually due to individual reasons on each of the gas pipelines.
By the summer of 2022, Ukraine had blocked one of the two Russian gas transit routes — a gas pipeline through the gas metering station “Sokhranovka“, since now part of the pipeline passes through the territory of the LPR. Therefore, pumping through Ukraine was reduced to 42.4 million cubic meters. m. per day (about 15.4 billion cubic meters per year).
Also in the first half of 2022, the Yamal - Europe gas pipeline stopped working". Poland froze Gazprom's stake (49%) in the operator of the Polish section of the gas pipeline - the company Europol Gaz. In response, Russia imposed sanctions on all Gazprom assets seized in Europe, including the Polish company. This means that Gazprom cannot pay the operator “Yamal Europe“ for transporting gas to Germany.
The “Nord Stream“ gas pipeline reduced gas pumping in the summer of 2022 due to the successive shutdown of turbines operating at the “Portovaya“ gas compressor station in the Leningrad Region. These units were manufactured in Montreal, Canada (at the time of the construction of “Nord Stream“ such turbines were not yet produced in Russia). The turbines were supposed to be serviced by the German company Siemens. But it refused to fulfill the contract because it was afraid of being subjected to secondary sanctions — After all, certain sanctions from the US, the EU and Canada prohibited the supply of “energy equipment“ to Russia. As a result, the turbines of “Nord Stream“ exhausted their resource and stopped one after another, which led to the reset of pumping by September 2022, and on September 26 of the same year, a terrorist attack on the gas pipeline (in Swedish waters) occurred.
„Nord Stream“ 2 by 2022 has not yet received permission for commissioning, although one line of the gas pipeline survived the explosions and can be put into operation as soon as possible.
Throughout 2024, only two gas pipelines from Russia to Europe were operating: transit through Ukraine (the northern route through the Sudzha gas metering station) and „Turkish Stream“. In total, they pumped 32 billion cubic meters. m. But since January 1, 2025, Ukraine has blocked the transit of Russian gas to Europe. Therefore, this year, deliveries will amount to approximately 16-17 billion cubic meters. m. through the only remaining gas pipeline - “Turkish Stream“. Another 20 billion cubic meters. m. of Russian gas was supplied to the European Union in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Almost all of this volume comes from one project, Yamal LNG. Although in 2024, small deliveries were also made from the medium-tonnage liquefied natural gas plants “Kriogaz-Vysotsk“ and “Port LNG“. In 2025, the US imposed sanctions on them and now European companies are afraid to buy their products. This means that in 2025 not only pipeline deliveries from Russia to Europe will decrease, but also sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
According to the European Commission, in 2024, 9 EU countries imported Russian gas, and three will continue to do so in 2025. Although in reality the number of importers is much higher. The European Commission deliberately understates the numbers to show that phasing out imports from Russia will be easy. European officials do not take into account the fact that Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is obtained by one country, which then converts the gas from a liquid to a gaseous state. For example, Germany buys Russian gas delivered through a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Belgium (in the statistics it is shown as Belgian gas, although the country does not produce it at all).
The main problem that the EU will face when trying to implement the roadmap for abandoning Russian energy sources is the heterogeneity of the positions of the European countries themselves. Hungary and Slovakia are expected to oppose the energy embargo. Russia remains the most profitable supplier for them. After all, if the import of Russian gas into the EU becomes impossible, then Slovakia and Hungary will have to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG). The specificity of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is that the consumer in Europe must always offer a price higher than what companies in Asia are willing to pay, and only then will the gas carrier come to him. In addition, it will be necessary to pay for unloading in the coastal country, regasification (transformation from a liquid to a gaseous state) and pumping on its territory through gas pipelines. These are only direct additional costs.
If the import of Russian gas is banned, all European consumers will suffer indirectly. After all, the fewer suppliers there are on the market, the less competition there is and the higher the price. This means that gas prices on the European stock exchange will be higher than if it were possible to buy Russian gas. Moreover, in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) segment, Russia is in second place in terms of supply volume, second only to the United States.
Thus, European countries have no economic grounds to ban Russian gas. But most EU countries do not have enough sovereignty to object to Brussels. Slovakia and Hungary stand out in this regard. Budapest already has experience in protecting its national interests. Hungary spent the entire month of May 2022 blocking the adoption of the then 6th package of anti-Russian sanctions because it contained a ban on oil imports from Russia. As a result, the text was changed and the embargo was imposed only on oil transported by tankers, while pipeline deliveries could continue, which the ports of Hungary and Slovakia still use, importing Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline. Now the EU roadmap proposes introducing a ban on oil imports via pipelines, which will certainly lead to protests in Hungary and Slovakia.
The situation is aggravated by Brussels' attempt to push through the introduction of an anti-Russian embargo. According to European law, the introduction of sanctions must be approved unanimously, i.e. Hungary and Slovakia will categorically block such initiatives. Therefore, the EU now calls the introduction of a ban on energy imports from Russia a roadmap, an "action plan", but not sanctions. European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said that the current decision will be taken by a majority vote of EU countries. Thus, attempts to push through the decision to refuse oil, gas and uranium from Russia provoke a political crisis in the EU.
Brussels is trying to reassure national governments that by 2027 there will be additional gas supply on the world market, which means that the refusal of Russian supplies will not provoke a deficit and will be painless. Indeed, in the coming years, liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants will be put into operation in the United States, Qatar, Australia and a number of other countries. The United States plans to double its exports of liquefied natural gas by 2028, although it is already the largest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world. However, it is not a fact that all the factories will operate at full capacity — After all, to fill them, it will be necessary to significantly increase gas production, which is not guaranteed. In addition, the construction of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants in the United States leads to an increase in prices on the domestic market, since it becomes possible to choose where to supply gas - to the American market or for export. As a result, in the future, the US domestic market will have to set prices similar to those in Europe or Asia to maintain gas volumes. And for the Trump administration, maintaining low gas prices is the basis of its policy of "Making America Great Again". After all, cheap gas equals cheap electricity, and this is a major reason for the development of industrial production.
However, the European Union is clearly trying to improve its relations with the Trump administration through its actions. It is no coincidence that Brussels has published a roadmap for abandoning Russian gas now, although it is proposed that it be discussed within the EU only in June. The EU is effectively offering the US to clear its gas market for American liquefied natural gas (LNG) in exchange for softening Washington's position on tariffs on European goods.
For Russia, a complete closure of the European market will not be a disaster. Of course, gas supplies through pipelines are beneficial for the budget, since “Gazprom“ pays a mineral extraction fee when extracting this gas, and pays a mineral extraction fee when exporting it. duty. In addition, there is nowhere to redirect these volumes, so Gazprom's production will have to be reduced. But the volumes of sales to Europe are already so small that they do not affect the Russian economy. The export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has practically no impact on the budget, since the “Yamal LNG“ project at the beginning of its implementation received significant tax breaks for 12 years and will not start making payments to the budget soon. However, Moscow will categorically oppose illegal sanctions. In addition, the heating up of the dispute within the European Union helps us demonstrate the inadequacy of Brussels' position even from the point of view of the interests of ordinary Europeans.