Since the beginning of the year, Bulgaria has experienced record heat waves, a series of devastating fires and catastrophic floods that took human lives. Climate change already has its price, and it is growing with each passing year. According to a new study by the European Central Bank and the University of Mainheim, it cost Europe about 43 billion euros in 2025 alone. These are preliminary data that do not take into account the latest natural disasters on the continent, and the year is not over yet.
For the entire European Union, the damage amounts to a quarter of a percent of the economy, but for Bulgaria the blow is four times stronger. The losses in our country reach one percent of the gross domestic product, or about one billion euros - as much as the budget of a medium-sized city. In practice, this means that in 2025 every Bulgarian lost about 140 euros due to drought and heat.
"The situation is similar in neighboring Greece. The other most affected countries are Cyprus and Malta. Why? Because they are small economies, largely exposed to climate-related risks. Otherwise, in absolute terms, the large economies in Europe suffer even greater losses," commented Gennady Kondarev, an energy expert from the Black Sea Energy Research Center, quoted by the Bulgarian National Radio.
Bulgaria is not sufficiently prepared for the growing climate risks - its infrastructure is outdated, and the new one is often built without taking climate change into account. Among the causes of the severe damage and loss of life on the Black Sea coast is most likely construction where it should not have been built.
Events that used to happen once a century are now happening more and more often. An example of this is the sharp temperature amplitudes this year - a warm end of winter, followed by a cold spring, which hit agriculture and raised fruit prices, and then a hot September and snowstorms in early October.
"Therefore, it is time to start planning and building with extreme weather in mind, which is now the new normal," the expert emphasized.
Experts warn that Bulgaria is among the most vulnerable countries in Europe - because of its dependence on agriculture and water resources and limited adaptation options.
"There are many possibilities and all of this falls into the realm of adaptation. All summer long, especially around the fires, we have been talking about providing equipment to put out these fires, and not having everything done by volunteers and with improvised equipment. But at the same time, we must also think about long-term solutions," Kondarev explained.
He raised the question of whether the infrastructure - dams, water systems - is ready for the new climate phenomena. At the moment they are empty, but heavy rainfall can quickly fill them. As temperatures rise, storms become stronger, droughts - more severe.
"This summer has shown us that Bulgaria is not as rich in water resources as we thought, and they are being lost due to unmaintained infrastructure and imprecise management, leading to water regimes," added the expert.
More can be done - to protect soils, use and recycle water wisely, so as not to undermine food production opportunities. However, this requires recognition of the problem and planning. Bulgarian society has difficulty recognizing these long-term trends and is often deceived by populist promises that there is no need for action.
The projections for 2030 are alarming - losses from climate change could reach three to five percent of the economy.
"We are talking about changes that can erase any economic progress. If Bulgaria loses three to five percent of the added value of its economy annually or cannot achieve it, what kind of economic growth are we talking about," Gennady Kondarev emphasized.
Sectors such as agriculture are directly affected. So is tourism, because there are already parts of the seasons that are becoming unpredictable. An extreme event can destroy assets across sectors, making the situation particularly complex.
The study was published on September 14, 2025 by Dr. Sehrish Usman of the University of Mainz together with economists from the European Central Bank Miles Parker and Mathilde Vallat.