The tension in the ruling majority is rising after sharp criticism and demands for personnel changes in the cabinet, which raises the question of whether Bulgaria is facing a new political crisis. In the studio of "Hello, Bulgaria", political scientist from "Trend" Dimitar Ganev commented that despite calls for reformatting, early elections are unlikely at this stage. According to him, the main reason is the risk of the emergence of a new political project by President Rumen Radev, which could channel the accumulated public tension. The sociologist from “Myara“ Parvan Simeonov, on the other hand, defined Boyko Borisov's recent actions as an “emotional reaction“, which opens up various possible scenarios for the future of the government.
► Early elections or reformatting?
According to Dimitar Ganev, the ruling partners do not want early elections. He pointed out that with the current low voter turnout, mainly the hard cores of the party vote, but a possible new early vote and a project by President Radev would mobilize the protest and punitive vote. Ganev believes that the most likely scenario is “a small restart“ with personnel changes in key ministries such as the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the post of Speaker of the National Assembly, in order to relieve tension.
Parvan Simeonov defined Boyko Borisov's moves as an attempt to show that he is an important factor in the government. According to him, the GERB leader is in a “slightly deadlocked position“, since in both main scenarios - early elections or a reformatting of the cabinet with a stronger participation of the MRF, Delyan Peevski would be the winner. “In possible new elections, Peevski will be even stronger, and Borisov - even more politically dependent. In a reformatting of the government, it will still depend on Peevski“, Simeonov analyzed.
► The role of small partners and the external factor
Regarding the smaller coalition partners such as “There is such a people“ and BSP, Dimitar Ganev commented that they know that in new elections they risk not entering parliament. Therefore, their position is “for“ preserving the government. Simeonov added that small parties always want to gain time to show results in their portfolios, although this rarely happens.
When asked about the presence of an international factor, Ganev said that it is always overestimated in Bulgaria and that internal balances and relations are more decisive for the political process. Simeonov agreed, noting that it is precisely in this “weightlessness“ that the current political upheavals become possible.