In the midst of the tense political situation in our country and the series of large-scale protests that changed the social dynamics in just a few weeks, what stands out on the horizon... About the reasons behind the dissatisfaction, the role of the ruling majority and the expectations for the next political steps. The topics range from budget disputes and tensions around the introduction of the euro, to the mutual opposition between protests and counter-protests, as well as possible scenarios for resignation and early elections. Sociologist Evelina Slavkova from „Trend“ spoke to FACTI.
- Ms. Slavkova, from a protest against the budget, we are seeing protests against the cabinet. What evolution has the square undergone?
- That's right. In fact, it is important to note that the first protest before the protest on December 1 was concentrated on the topic of the budget. The opposition also focused on this until it heard what the people were chanting. The budget turned out to be so unacceptable that at one point an almost impossible combination between employers and unions was formed, where everyone was dissatisfied with their bell tower, but they were united by the common feeling that they did not agree and were satisfied.
- Because it was a „single budget“, wasn't that what the government said?
- Yes, we heard that it was the only one possible in the conditions we are in at the moment. It turns out that this is actually not the case. Many concessions were made. We saw what happened with the budget, but we also saw something else - in fact, this withdrawal of the budget and its reworking did not lead to the easing of tensions, because we saw what happened on December 1 and December 10.
The protest has now moved from the budget issue to traditional anti-government protests in all their symbolism.
There are certainly many people who are also protesting against the budget. There are certainly many people who are protesting against the euro. But somehow the unifying thing in all this tension, the protests that we observed not only within Sofia, but also within the entire country, are actually already traditional anti-government protests. The budget issue has already passed in people's minds. Already on December 1, people started shouting in the squares for the government to resign.
- And where is the hatred in all this?
- Well, look. I don't see any mention of hatred anywhere…
- But the counter-protests that were organized were under the slogan “No to hatred“““
- Yes, that's right. But I don't see any - I say this as a sociologist - contradiction between people and any division within people. It seems to me that it is becoming increasingly clear that the majority are dissatisfied. In principle, I have a specific opinion about counter-protests and regardless of what slogan they are under, I don't think they are productive.
What we saw as information in the public space is that after the counter-protests in Kardzhali yesterday, there were demonstrations that were “for“ the resignation of the government. Of course, this does not cancel the right of people who believe that the government should continue to govern to express their position. In no case do I think that opposition should be allowed or interpreted that there is a deep division in society regarding protests and counter-protests. In my opinion, this is not the right strategy.
In addition, before analyzing a protest dynamic, one always looks at the scale.
When we compare the protests of December 1 and December 10 - with the participation of over 100,000 people, reflected both in Sofia and in many other cities - it becomes clear that they are significant in scope and energy. Against this background, the counter-protests failed to mobilize broad groups of the ruling majority. Therefore, I think it is more than clear which side is the winner in this situation.
- On January 1, 2026, we adopt the euro and are heading for early elections. Is that what we heard from Boyko Borisov?
- That's more how I interpreted his words. And look, this is also a legitimate thesis. Ultimately, let this period with the topic of the euro pass. It is extremely important. And it is understood in some aspect from the political arguments for not resigning immediately at the moment. We know historically how quickly Borisov resigned, ultimately with much smaller protests in terms of the number of people than we are currently observing.
- But in his capacity as prime minister, and now he is an ordinary MP – in his words?
- At the moment we have a complex structure of the ruling majority, and other parties may also have their own views on the issue of resignation. Perhaps what Borisov said is in the context of gaining political time. Until the process passes... I think the correct expression was: "Until every Bulgarian goes to the ATM and puts a euro in it". And then we will talk about resignations.
My feeling is that this will most likely be the proposal to the people, which will be made by the mandate holder. Because Borisov may not be the prime minister, but he is still the mandate holder of this cabinet.
In the end, he may say something like - "...give us time until some date - February 1, March 1", I speak figuratively, until the process passes, so that Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone goes more smoothly. And then we resign. I suppose that such a scenario is also possible, in order to reduce social tension a little. But here I am not entirely convinced to what extent people will agree to this proposal. But I say that it is a possible political move. This is how I read Boyko Borisov's words.
- Boyko Borisov also said that he spoke with his colleagues in the ruling majority - BSP and ITN, about this option. But did he speak with Delyan Peevski, from whom we heard that this cabinet will serve its 4-year term, and he is a guarantor of this?
- You see that these relations in power are certainly very complex and we are not observing them from now on. And you can see what the complexity of these relations led to - to unprecedented protests that brought people out, saying: “Not this model“, “We don't want you to govern us anymore“ etc.
But let's look at the situation from a political science perspective. GERB, and everyone in the ruling majority, realize that with early elections, but also with Rumen Radev's obvious request to enter the political scene, this configuration, which is certainly comfortable for them at the moment, cannot be rebuilt.
Especially for smaller political parties such as ITN and BSP, which are questionable whether they will be able to overcome the 4 percent barrier.
The "DPS Novo nacholo" party - from the perspective of the specifics of its electorate, is much more consolidated and, in principle, by presumption, should not lose much in new early elections. But then comes the big question - that based on these protests and based on the fact that the configuration in the next National Assembly is very likely to be different from what we have observed in recent years, it will put “DPS Novo nachod“ in a much more uncomfortable situation.
GERB, on the other hand, realizes that resigning is a method that they have used and which ultimately led to power returning to them. But here the situation is different - with the emergence of a new political player.
- Could it be that, “when we least expect it and are with a glass of champagne in hand in anticipation of the new year”, Rumen Radev surprise us in his New Year's address with the words that he will form a party?
- I think that this is being circulated and commented on as some kind of joke. I have no idea where such a thesis came from, but such a possibility is already being discussed on social networks. I expect that in his New Year's message, the president, from what we have as experience, will again stick to the context of the statements that we have heard or heard, such as those after the protest yesterday and after the protest on December 1.
But I am not convinced, even more pessimistic, that we will witness on December 31, while we are sitting at the table, hearing from the president that a political project is being announced.
I understand that we have reached extremes in political terms, but I am rather pessimistic about such an action by Radev.
- Let us not forget what happened on New Year's Eve 1999, when Boris Yeltsin handed over power to Vladimir Putin right in his address. It's not like it hasn't happened…
- I don't think President Radev would follow in Putin's footsteps, so I'm skeptical in this regard. Maybe this has started to be commented on as some kind of joke, but it doesn't seem realistic to me.
- And is there a potential for Rumen Radev and his party to run for elections very quickly. If the vote is, for example, April or May…
- Purely legally, the way the procedures are written in the Constitution cannot lead us to elections so quickly. April or May can be expected, but first a resignation must be submitted, then consultations begin, then a rotation begins - whether a new government can be formed within this National Assembly. Then, when this proves to be an unsuccessful attempt, a caretaker cabinet is appointed, which must organize the elections within 60 days. That is, there is no way that elections can happen so quickly. At least, because we do not have a resignation yet, we are working with some hypotheses. So the probability of this happening in the spring, if we have a resignation in January or February, is much greater. We have at least roughly 3 months in which there are things in political terms that need to happen before we even go to elections. And that's why it won't be a surprise.
- What have the protests changed now, today…
- I think that even now people's expectations are not “whether there will be a resignation“, but “when exactly there will be a resignation“. Because these protests did one thing - they changed the political timing - from presidential elections to early parliamentary elections. In fact, if we look at what we commented on 3 weeks ago, then there was talk of presidential elections. The horizon was the presidential elections. Now these protests have changed the political dynamics and obviously there will be early elections before the presidential elections. There is also something else. When what we are observing in the square happens - it ties the hands of the authorities. Because even one appointment can “inflame“ society extremely much if it happens. Of course, around the holidays the authorities will have some calm, which does not mean that the protesters will not come out again in January. Now it remains to be seen what the reactions of the political forces will be after yesterday's protest.