Categorically, changes to the Electoral Code should not be made at the last minute. The rule is one year before the elections - do not touch anything. And what is touched - is important not for the upcoming vote, but for the next elections. The minimum rule is to make changes six months in advance. If you touch within these six months - the elections are tainted. This was stated in the program “Crossroads” by the director of “Electoral Attitudes and Forecasts” at “Gallup International Balkan” Prof. Mihail Konstantinov.
According to him, the deputies are currently “having fun with the latest changes to the electoral legislation”. “But there will be no new way of voting, because there are a little more than two months left until the elections. There is absolutely no time for anything. We will vote the old way”, he explained.
Professor Konstantinov also commented on the question of whether or not it is good to return to the option of voting by machine in all sections with over 300 voters? “When the Bulgarian has the right to choose - approximately 60 to 40 percent is divided in favor of paper. This was shown by the last 6 early elections in the country. In three of the votes, Bulgarians could choose what to vote with. We are talking about the large sections. And in the small ones - they had no choice, because there they vote only with paper. You cannot drive a machine to a section with 20 people. Besides, the people who vote there - have not seen a machine. They will not see it. They have not seen an ATM, and they will not see it. They receive their pensions in hand. These are 800 thousand Bulgarian pensioners”, he emphasized.
In his words, about 700 thousand fewer people voted in the last six elections. He emphasized that he could not claim that these voters refused to cast their votes because of the introduction of the machines.
According to Konstantinov - when voting is done with machines, there are practically no invalid votes."And here is the moment to explain what invalid votes actually are in Bulgaria, because this is where most lies are made. Eight types of elections are held in Bulgaria - those who do not know can count them. Only in one type of elections, those for municipal councilors - is there a high percentage of invalid votes", he explained.
And he recalled that invalid votes reached about 15% in the last two elections, after the introduction of preferences. This is known - people choose a preference, but do not choose a party, which makes the vote invalid.
"In all other elections, invalid votes are below 4%. This is a lot, but it is within the norm. Everything else is a lie. Whoever claims the opposite, I bet any amount that in all other elections, invalid votes in Bulgaria are between 2 and 4%. Including the last six elections, when we count the invalid votes only in relation to paper ballots, which is the fair approach. If we relate them to the total number of votes, the percentage drops even more. Whoever claims that there are more is either ignorant or lying", the professor is categorical.
Konstantinov also explained what the scanning device is and how it works, which several parties have spoken about and demanded its introduction: "First, I mark my choice on the ballot. Then I go to the scanning device and put it inside. The device reads it and drops it into the ballot box. The ballot is not returned because it is state property. If the ballot is filled out incorrectly, there is an option to return it after the screen shows how it was read. Then the voter decides whether to correct it. If not - the ballot is considered invalid".
According to him, in some systems a receipt is also issued, which the voter drops into the ballot box, but this depends on the specific technology. "The important thing is that a person is sure that what he has marked is exactly what was counted. And the most important thing in this case is that there will be no more people who will mark "for Bacho Tseno - for example, 10 votes". This counting is terminated. The data is recorded in the device and there is no way to "add" it, he emphasized.
Where we have seen preferences added, this does not change the vote for the party, but only the internal distribution. This is a gross violation of the Election Law, but it does not change the vote itself. In sections without preferences, however, it is added directly - and with the full conviction that "this is how it is done". This shows that some of the commissions are extremely illiterate and need to be trained, Konstantinov is categorical.
But he also pointed out a serious problem. "Scanning devices rely on technical vision, which is never 100% reliable. There are numerous complaints about incorrectly counted votes. It is not clear how much you have to deviate from the ideal marking for your vote not to be counted," he stated.
When asked if these devices could be purchased, certified, implemented and the commissions trained in time for the upcoming elections, he was categorical: "No. To claim such a thing is either complete ignorance or malicious intent. There is no theoretical way in two months to deliver the machines, certify them, train the commissions and prepare the voters".
According to his calculations, the price of the machines will be around 50 million euros for machines that will be thrown away in a few years. "But more importantly, we have destroyed trust in the electoral process", he pointed out.
The professor also explained about voter turnout. "There are 5.2 million voters in Bulgaria, and a total of 6.6 million people. This means that 1.4 million people are abroad. In the country, the turnout is about 50% - 2.6 million voted out of 5.2 million. Between 150 and 200 thousand people vote abroad, which is a very low turnout for objective reasons. Thus, the average turnout drops to about 40%.
And he emphasized that in the upcoming elections, voting will be done with the old machines used as printers, and with paper ballots for whoever wants. "About 60% of people prefer paper. There is nothing wrong with that. The bad thing is that most machines are out of warranty and often do not work. When a machine breaks down, a new one has to be brought in, and people in line refuse to vote. That is why it is vital to have an alternative way of voting," he emphasized.
Konstantinov also commented on the question of whether there will be a new political player in these elections?
"No. A new project should have 31 charismatic leaders in the 31 electoral districts. I don't see any. If we talk about President Radev - he has people, but he also has an oath that he took. There is only one precedent for a president to leave his mandate for politics - in Bangladesh.
And he calculated that the elections will be exactly two months after they were scheduled. "The most likely dates are March 29 or the end of April. Many parties want March, but the president can choose a later date. Given the weather, I personally would prefer the end of April.".