A new sociological picture shakes the political status quo – the formation associated with Rumen Radev comes out with a nearly 10% lead over GERB and declares ambition for a leading role in the next parliament. Is this the beginning of sustainable electoral dominance or a momentary wave of public disappointment and hope? Sociologist Mira Radeva speaks to FACT about the possible scenarios, the risks facing a future government and the reactions of the other political players…
- Ms. Radeva, the latest sociology gives a solid lead to Romeras' party – about a 10% difference, 25 to 15 over GERB. Does this predetermine a sustainable electoral wave?
- The difference is indeed serious and at this stage it seems difficult to overcome, regardless of voter turnout. A 10% difference between parties outlines a new electoral dominance. Whether it will be sustainable, however, depends on several factors. First of all - how many parties will enter parliament. The stronger a wave becomes, the more voter turnout increases. And higher turnout usually drowns small parties.
- So you expect higher voter turnout?
- Yes, that is very likely. In society, hope for Radev, whom I would not call a “savior”, but rather a unifier, is growing like an avalanche. The last parliaments were highly fragmented - eight or nine parties each. This parceling of the institution led to political instability and the impossibility of sustainable governance. If we now have a clearer concentration of the vote, this could lead to a different configuration.
- Where will support for Radev come from?
- From everywhere. I liked a colleague's expression that Radev is sucking up the electorate like a vacuum cleaner, and that is a fact. And now, in the face of such a powerful player, it is clear that he will have an electoral advantage. More votes will go to him. He is currently "sucking up" the periphery from various political spaces. It is no coincidence that he is economical in his statements.
- But the other leaders - Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski, are also silent. Is that the game at the moment...
- The reason is clear: if they attack him, they will strengthen the wave. If Radev starts talking too much, he will open up fronts and be forced to take specific positions that may disappoint some of his voters.
- How sustainable can this support for Rumen Radev be?
- This will depend on the next parliament. Imagine a hypothesis in which four parties participate, and the smallest is “Vazrazhdane“. If in such a configuration Radev has an absolute majority, governance will depend entirely on him – on the team he will assemble, and on his ability to meet the expectations of many diverse groups.
The real problem is that we – as a society, do not have a clear, unified idea of what we want today in this dynamic and rapidly changing world. The world order is unstable, the statements of world leaders are monitored daily, and the feeling is of uncertainty.
- The key question is who would Radev govern with?
- Exactly. If he forms a coalition with “Vazrazhdane“, which is an openly pro-Russian party, he will meet the resistance of a pro-European electorate. If he goes in a more clearly pro-European direction, he risks losing the support of some of the voters who expect this different geopolitical course towards Russia. The heterogeneity of society will inevitably affect the government.
- However, we have not seen Radev in a classic executive function. Is this a risk?
- Yes, this is an important point. He appointed service cabinets, but the memory of them is not unambiguously positive. Until now, we have seen him as a critic from the position of his “throne“ of a president – of a person who talks about corruption and weaknesses in the government. If he enters the executive branch, he will be subjected to the same type of criticism.
The other main players are probably consciously not focusing on him at the moment. They prefer to see him in a real management role, so that his capacity can be demonstrated. The royal crown is heavy – all hopes will be directed towards him.
– At the moment, only Radev is speaking, and the people around him remain in the shadows. Is this a plus?
– In politics, silence often works in favor of the one who is on the rise. When the rest wait for signals, and the society is tired of scandals, a feeling of vacuum and concentration of attention on one center is created. At this stage, this seems to be a comfortable position for him. Even if part of these 10% melts away, the difference remains significant.