Will we have a new political beginning after the elections on October 27, or will we continue to get “more of the same”. The campaign is underway, but what do the parties offer us… Political scientist Ivo Injov spoke to FACTS.
- Mr. Injov, what answers will the elections on October 27 give about what is happening in DPS?- I expect the superiority of DPS-Dogan to be in the ratio of 60 to 40%, even 75 to 25% . At the same time, the elections will show the overall real weight of the movement in the political process in our country. Here I expect that the total number of votes that will be taken by the two formations has decreased quite a bit. They will be less than DPS received in the last elections. In the medium term, the weight of the DPS in Bulgarian political life will decrease.
- The emotional in DPS versus the new beginning… What dilemma is this for voters?
- DPS voters generally have many reasons to criticize the movement, and this is because most of them do not live well, live modestly, poorly, make a living as guest workers abroad. But these are people who always vote for the Movement, because it is something encoded in them as citizens of Bulgaria. Something that goes without saying. And another – for them the Movement and Ahmed Dogan continue to be synonymous. Dogan made a real contribution to the Bulgarian peaceful transition at the beginning of the changes. After that, we have witnessed how DPS has become something that is associated with the distribution of money from the state table, with hoops from companies, with portions in power. It is precisely this model in the work of the DPS that created the Delyan Peevski phenomenon. However, in my opinion, the emotional vote will definitely prevail over the corporate beginning. The attempts at some principle combined with pragmatism, which Peevski tries to apply, will not be enough. The odds, in my opinion, are on Dogan's side, although both he and Peevski epitomize what an ethnic party in a democratic society should not be.
- “Revival“ second political power, this means a cabinet mandate. What does that mean?
- “Revival“ will probably achieve their best performance to date. They profit from the weakness of other nationalist formations, but also from the destructive effects that the “assembly” had on the claimants to be Euro-Atlantic parties. This is a natural process in society, which enables the “Revival” to grow. In my opinion, there will not be some dizzying rise and greatness of the nationalist vote, but we must realize that there is such a political force, with a certain weight on the political scene - such are the electoral sentiments in society. If “Revival“ became too strong a party, apparently the political system needs to build some kind of protective wall against them - because of their intentions towards the LGBTI group of people, the NGO sector, etc. Such a wall as various parties in Germany are trying to create against “Alternative for Germany”.
- GERB is betting on mayors who will not become deputies. Is this something new as an approach in elections...
- GERB does this, and so does Peevski with the list leaders, because he puts three mayors at the head of the list in Kardzhali. In this sense, the formula with mayors is new, but it is not new that in Bulgaria, recognizable faces, popular among the electorate in the respective area, are put on leadership lists, who then do not become deputies. The goal is to pull the leaf forward. But this, in itself, is disrespectful to the voters, because they are seen as quite naive people who cannot form their own judgments about the political product they choose. When a politician wants to participate in parliament and in politics, honest and decent behavior requires that he run for office, then become an MP and do those things that he promised on behalf of his party in the campaign.
- PP-DB how they enter the campaign… We heard they are fighting to get back 100,000 votes…
- PP-DB enter the campaign very unconvincingly, quite sluggishly, but this also applies to the other parties. PP-DB did not renew their lists, there is internal tension between them, because 2/3 of the leadership positions are on “We continue the change” and only 1/3 of “Democratic Bulgaria”, although the most likely electoral ratio within the coalition is 2:1 in favor of DB. In my opinion, they will hardly achieve a return of 100,000 votes. For PP-DB, it will be a success if they manage to stay above 300,000 votes and do not fall below these values. PP-DB have not yet given a convincing explanation why they were in this “assembly” with parties they had declared enemies. They also give very contradictory signals about what their relations with GERB and Borisov will be after the elections.
- What is left of the BSP, what do you expect from the socialists?
- From the BSP, although they will participate in such a large format, I expect a weaker result. Their constituents are deeply shaken, confused and confused. And this is because this party never offers real social policies aimed at working people, socially weak and vulnerable groups. It continues to stand in the conservative niche as before, offering nothing, and in that niche there are already much more original actors. The split among their electorate is also a fact because of leadership divorces, etc.
- 75000-80000 votes for a small party to enter the parliament. What legitimacy is this…
- Every party that entered the parliament is legitimately represented according to the current electoral system. That's on the one hand. On the other hand, there is the question of moral legitimacy, because very few people actually send deputies to the parliament, and accordingly those who make the decisions represent the will of at most a small part of the voters. In order to avoid such situations in the future, the parties and their leaders must make revolutionary efforts to return the importance and meaning of politics to the life of society.