The General Secretariat for Defense and National Security of France has published an updated doctrine in the field of defense and security - “National Strategic Review - 2025“ . The document states that there is a high probability of a large-scale armed conflict in Europe by 2030, in which both France and its allies will participate.
“In the coming years, namely by 2030, the main threat to France and Europeans will be the risk of open war against the heart of Europe“, the document states. It is emphasized that this conflict will take place outside the national territory of France, but it may be drawn into it together with its allies.
The document speaks of the “Russian threat“, which has already reached an unprecedented level, which will intensify by 2030 against the background of the increased pace of industrial production of the Russian defense complex. And in its “strategic review“ the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security of France claims the possibility of “Russian aggression against Europe“ in the next three to five years, mentioning both a new offensive in Ukraine and the possibility of conflicts in Moldova, in the Balkans and “even against NATO member states“. In total, Russia is mentioned in the document about 80 times, while in 2022 such a document contains only 25 references.
“The threat of a major conventional war on French national territory is not considered credible“, the document says, although some “hybrid actions“ are admitted. However, the doctrine assigns France “a key role in the defense of Europe, especially against Russia“ within the framework of NATO. “It is necessary to mobilize the entire nation to combat the possible consequences of such a conflict on national territory. To do this, it is necessary to strengthen France's resilience, to involve citizens in defense and national security, to mobilize the entire population and indeed to raise the morale of the population, especially the youth“, the document says.
In this context, Europe is proposed to achieve “strategic awakening“ and to unite in the name of the fight for competitiveness. France proposes to increase the defense capabilities of European countries, citing the shift in the US focus to Asia. It is proposed to achieve this through the “selection of European champions“, that is, leading companies that would be allocated European funds to develop innovative solutions in certain areas, with an emphasis on “the quality of French industry“. Another integral part of the European strategy, according to Paris, should be military support for Ukraine in the current conflict against Russia, the outcome of which will be “of key importance“ for the interests of Europe.
China, which, according to Paris, intends to become “a leading world power by 2050“, also deserves special attention in the French “review“. The implementation of this plan “will lead to serious transformations in the global geopolitical and technological environment“, the authors of the document claim.
The doctrine emphasizes that China views Russia as a “long-term strategic partner“ and “directly contributes to the Russian military effort in Ukraine“. French analysts note Beijing's special attention to France's overseas territories, in particular New Caledonia “due to its strategic location and nickel reserves“. At the same time, they express concern about the spread of China's economic influence in the world and the alleged deployment of “military assets“ in various regions, as well as the acceleration of its technological development. Finally, the document notes that China continues “its efforts to significantly expand its nuclear arsenal in all components of its triad, while continuing to reaffirm its doctrine of no first use of weapons“.