GERB-SDS maintains a significant lead as the first political force with 25.7% of the voices. PP-DB stands out more distinctly before “Revival“ – 16.6% versus 15.4% respectively. At this stage, it is difficult to determine who would finish in second and third place, and surprising developments are not excluded. It is more difficult to determine with demoscopic methods the situation in the field of the traditional DPS electorate. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms remained at 8.3%. An upward trend can be seen for DPS-New Beginning, who entered the campaign with lower numbers, but would have already received 6.9% support by now. BSP-United Left would have 7.1%, and ITN with 6.3%.
The data are based on an independent survey by “Gallup International Balkan”. It covers 806 adult Bulgarians in a representative sample and was conducted through a face-to-face interview. with tablets between September 28 and October 6. The poll is not a prediction of an election result, it is a snapshot – which is coupled with serious conditionality due to the respondents' degrees of openness, as well as due to the expected weighting of “technological“ vote in the expected fluctuating total turnout.
All these formations are currently in a kind of “package”, but the development of the campaign can change a lot of things, as far as, for example, the prominence of DPS-New Beginning is already visible. With good opportunities are MECH with 3.7%, and “Velichie“, which at the beginning of October are at 3.2%. “Blue Bulgaria” is at the level of 1.1%. The remaining shares are distributed between formations with declared support below a percentage at this stage.
At the beginning of October, according to the respondents' declarations, the certainty of voting for the National Assembly is 30.5%, taking into account the ambiguity in the electoral lists, the declarative nature of attitudes, etc. The conditional expectation is about 2 million votes. 3.1% of all voters are expected to vote with “I do not support anyone”.
The research was conducted between September 28 and October 6, 2024 among 806 people using the face-to-face method. with tablets. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is +3.5% at 50 percent shares. 1% of the sample is equal to about 54 thousand people.