Should we expect an increase in COVID-19 cases after it got colder. Is it returning… Prof. Iva Hristova, director of the Center for Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, spoke to FACTI.
- Prof. Hristova, is COVID “reviving“ because the number of patients has been increasing in recent weeks?
- COVID-19 cases have indeed begun to gradually increase since the beginning of August. The wave that we are currently observing is much less pronounced than the waves that were registered during the pandemic period, and there is no reason for concern. The increase in cases in our country is associated with the epidemic situation in the European region, where more cases are also being registered. In our country, the wave is arriving with some delay.
While since the 32nd week we have observed an increase in the number of patients in each subsequent week, last week we registered a decrease in the incidence in our country. We are monitoring the situation and analyzing the data, and next week we will find out whether this decrease is a permanent trend and the wave has limited itself.
For the time being, despite the majority of registered cases since August, the epidemic situation is not complicated and the healthcare system has the capacity to cope. Since the beginning of 2025, 913 cases of COVID-19 have been registered in the country compared to 9826 cases for the same period last year. We must not forget that many cases, however, are not diagnosed and we cannot have a real idea of the extent of the spread of the infection.
- What strain of COVID is attacking us?
- Since 2022, with the emergence of Omicron, the variant has been established with the circulation of its subvariants, which are associated with a milder course compared to the dominant variants from the previous waves in 2021. Currently, most cases of the disease occur as an upper respiratory tract infection, and the symptoms may vary. In some patients, the course may be accompanied by fever and/or rhinitis.
- What do you attribute it to? The virus is among us and simply activates, or...
- The increase we have registered is not unusual. The virus has not stopped circulating among the human population since 2020, when a pandemic situation was declared. From time to time, a more intense spread is observed due to various factors related to the emergence of subvariants of the virus and the short-lived immunity after vaccination and illness.
- What is the incidence in Europe?
- In the first week of September, data on the epidemic situation related to the spread of COVID-19 were communicated by 11 countries of the European Union, with the average level of positive tests in outpatient care being 22%. This indicator has been showing a gradual increase since the beginning of May. Among hospitalized patients from 4 Member States, an average of 10% tested positive for COVID-19 infection. Over the past 2 weeks, there has been a decline in the percentage of hospitalizations due to COVID-19.
- Is it possible to predict when there will be a peak, or will the number of patients simply increase, but without becoming massive?
- With COVID-19, seasonality is not as clearly expressed as with other causes of acute respiratory diseases, and therefore we cannot say for sure when we expect a new peak in morbidity. In the last two or three years, waves have also been registered during the summer months. The dynamics in our country follow what is happening in other countries in Europe. The degree of impact depends on the accumulated immunity in society, as well as the evolutionary processes of the pathogen.
- How much do the vaccines we got years ago protect us?
- Our experience since 2021, when the administration of vaccines against COVID-19 began, shows that immunity both after vaccination and after recovery is not particularly long-lasting, sometimes with a statute of limitations of several months. It gradually weakens over time, as we become vulnerable to infection again.
- Covid and babies and young children today. What should parents do?
- In most children, COVID-19 infection is mild with symptoms of acute respiratory illness. The risk of severe disease is considered higher for children with chronic diseases. Parents are recommended to follow general anti-epidemic measures. Recommendations for disease prevention remain the same as during the pandemic. It is important to observe respiratory etiquette, maintain good hand hygiene and avoid contact with people showing symptoms of illness. The recommendation for prophylactic immunization for immunosuppressed and at-risk patients remains.
- How are things with the flu? What should we expect?
- With influenza viruses, we are accustomed to the established seasonality and usually predict an increase in circulation in December. The most intense circulation of influenza and influenza-like diseases is usually reported at the end of January and the beginning of February. At the moment, the situation is calm, and the incidence of influenza and influenza-like diseases is below the level recorded for the same period last year.