What are the electoral attitudes at the moment… We have a lull, excitement is coming or things seem calm. Political scientist Svetlin Tachev from the sociological agency “Measure“ speaks to FACTI.
- Mr. Tachev, a few days ago you released your latest sociological survey by “Measure“. GERB-SDS leads with 26.9%, but a fierce battle is being waged for second place - PP-DB (13.9%), “Vazrazhdane“ (13.7%) and DPS-New Beginning (13.6%). Who would weigh in second place, because it is important given that the party receives a portfolio and a mandate to form a government?
- I must emphasize that this is a snapshot of electoral attitudes. Definitely, the most interesting battle, if the elections were at the time of this research, would be for the second place, where three formations are moving in a “package“. PP-DB is second, but there is some erosion in them due to the upheavals they have undergone. “Vazrazhdane“ is achieving some consolidation of its positions, probably due to its firmer messages and actions, and “DPS-Novo“ is beginning to strengthen - this is probably due to the victory in the war with Ahmed Dogan for the inheritance of the DPS, as well as the offensiveness of its leader Delyan Peevski. However, his activity recently, especially in the attacks against PP-DB, may actually have the opposite effect on the democratic community. The more he attacks them, the more he unites them. This is opportunity for them to increase their mobilization potential. Otherwise, for these three formations, the second place has both a symbolic and a technical role for forming a government after the elections.
- Has DPS-New Beginning already gathered the entire electorate of DPS in one place?
- „DPS-New Beginning“ defeated Ahmed Dogan's wing in the war on all fronts. The snapshot of electoral attitudes shows that APS is losing ground and remains permanently below the line with 2.6%. There are certainly still people who sympathize with the authentic ideas of DPS. However, the problem of DPS seems to me to be generational, because the generations in this community are changing.
- Ahmed Dogan said that he will form a new party. What potential does it have…
- It seems to me that a new party of Dogan will have a hard time establishing itself on the political scene. A lot depends on how this formation was created. If the old cadres dominate, the party model of the old MRF is preserved, and the young are not given a chance, I am not optimistic. Let's not forget that Ahmed Dogan created political Delyan Peevski, called him a "phenomenon" and gave him power in the party.
- BSP receives 6.7%, and MECH - 6.6%. What do these data show?
- In relation to the BSP, Stoletnitsa is not in a particularly good position. The collapse in recent years has reduced it to a niche formation and left the left space in a vacuum. Its participation in the government certainly brings additional negatives to it.
A possible future party of Rumen Radev could cause it irreparable damage.
MECH, for its part, shows potential. Its presence in the National Assembly, as well as that of “Majesty“ is an example that there is still a search for alternatives. MECH is trying to be a constructive opposition element – it uses its opportunities to talk to the various warring formations among the opposition and to be their bridge. This is probably also popular among voters.
- According to your research, ITN has 5.3% and will enter the next National Assembly. ITN's participation in the government brings more benefits or harms…
- Both with the BSP and the ITN, the harms are much greater than the benefits. It seems to me that there is a discrepancy between the actions of the party elites and their electorates. Both parties were the main political opponents of GERB. BSP for more than a decade. ITN, on the other hand, wanted to “crush“ Borisov's party. They are currently governing together.
BSP and ITN played „vabank“, are now in the government, but this puts their future at risk.
Therefore, it seems that they are also the formations in the cabinet that would least like it to fall apart, because it is uncertain what will happen in the next elections. Now they are looking for a success to tell their voters. Bulgaria's entry into the eurozone is such a thing, but I am not sure that their voters will understand them.
- „Majesty“ (4.5%) also remains in parliament. How is this party developing…
- It is impressive that the party manages to consolidate itself in some position. The saga with their result, which first left them outside the National Assembly, and then they were admitted anyway, had a motivational effect among their supporters. And the opposition position they take probably also brings positives.
- We continue to have many parties, colorful parliament. Does this mean the same thing?
- Parliamentary fragmentation is the embodiment of societal fragmentation. People are looking for a big alternative, which was seen several times in 2021, but due to the lack of one, they are currently recognizing various new and smaller formations. Such are today's realities and forming a cabinet will become increasingly difficult.
That is why the “Zhelyazkov“ cabinet currently has the comfort to do whatever it wants,
because at this stage another configuration seems impossible, and the opposition is fragmented. The government is invulnerable through parliament. It can only fall apart due to internal contradictions. However, the comfort is deceptive, as the government begins to make mistakes and blunders that accumulate. This is what happened with the third cabinet of Boyko Borisov. Finally, the dissatisfaction is channeled into the anti-government protests of 2020.
- In general, President Rumen Radev has a high rating, but he is coming to the end of his term. Is there energy around him for a political project?
- There is energy, but a lot depends on what the situation will be in the coming months. There are two protests going on in Bulgaria - of the democratic community and of the opponents of the euro. Radev is trying to speak to both. And it seems to me that he is succeeding. The fight against corruption is a topic that is perceived not only by the supporters of the PP-DB. It is supra-partisan and encompasses people with different political views. Moreover, the mayor of Varna Blagomir Kotsev remains in custody, and Delyan Peevski is acting increasingly offensively. This seems to me to allow the PP-DB to unite, because there was a period in which they were shaken. The protests against the adoption of the euro will probably end soon, because the country's entry into the eurozone is inevitable. The question is whether the government will be able to ensure a smooth transition - without major turbulence that can be felt by the people. If it fails, in 2026, the winter months, which are generally nerve-wracking for any government, could generate large-scale social discontent. They would have the power to shift the political layers and provide a basis for Rumen Radev's political project. Boyko Borisov has experience with the February protests of 2013. That is why it seems to me that the government will act through a more social budget in order to minimize any such discontent. It seems to me that Radev's resignation is one of the things that holds the government together, because the longer it holds on to the president's project, the more it hopes not to allow it to cause a wave.