Many countries in the world insist that the terrorist organization Hamas be disarmed. However, there are numerous reasons that would prevent this. It is also debatable who will be responsible for security in the Gaza Strip in the future.
What will happen to Hamas? According to Trump's peace plan, the militant Islamist organization should be completely disarmed. But that has not yet happened. Israeli media reports that Hamas is currently waging fierce battles against rival groups. Videos are also circulating on social media showing Hamas executing or torturing alleged collaborators with Israel. The radical Islamist group is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the European Union, the United States and several other countries.
Whether Hamas can be disarmed is still unclear. US President Trump has been controversial. In his speech to the Israeli Knesset, he said that practically everyone in the region wants Hamas to be disarmed, but shortly before that - on the plane en route to Israel - he said that the US government had allowed the group to temporarily rearm because it had to try to restore order in Gaza.
"A clear message"
“The fact that Hamas is coming out publicly and sending armed forces into Gaza City shortly after Israel's withdrawal is a clear message,“ says Simon Wolfgang Fuchs, an Islamic scholar at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “Hamas is giving a clear signal that it has by no means disappeared from the Gaza Strip. On the contrary, it continues to claim a role there.“
Hamas's complete disarmament will likely take a long time, according to an analysis by the American think tank Atlantic Council. “As long as Hamas continues to exist - whether as an armed group, a political movement or even just as an ideology - there is a significant risk that the group will regain its influence in the Gaza Strip and impose its own interests“, the analysis says. And that is clearly what is happening now.
Weapons as a guarantee of Hamas' existence
Hamas sees its weapons as a guarantee of its existence - in military, political and symbolic terms, says Simon Engelkes, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation office in Ramallah. “Without concrete political compensation, the group is unlikely to agree to such a step. US President Trump's “Security guarantees“ alone that the war in the Gaza Strip will not continue after the ceasefire agreement are not enough.
Even if Hamas's military structures have been significantly weakened in the course of the war, their networks, as well as their visible presence in Gaza, have remained intact, Engelkes continues. “This guarantees their political survival in the short and medium term“, he adds.
Who is responsible for security in the Gaza Strip?
The complete disarmament of Hamas is also likely to be difficult due to the fact that until October 7, 2023, when the terrorists attacked Israel, internal security in the Gaza Strip was entirely in the hands of this organization. After it took over the territory in 2007, it was responsible for the police and internal security, as well as for justice and the judiciary.
It is still unclear who will be responsible for this in the future. Egypt and Jordan have announced that they are currently preparing a security force of up to 5,000 people for a mission in the Gaza Strip. This will also include the Palestinian Authority police.
But this is precisely what could become a problem, says Islamic scholar Fuchs. “It is entirely possible that Israel will veto these local forces.“ Because the government in Jerusalem does not want to recognize any role for the autonomous administration in Gaza. It is rather a question of not allowing forces that have any connection to the government in Ramallah. “In this sense, it is completely unclear how an agreement will be reached on this issue – and in whose hands the relevant security services will be.“
Hamas remains a threat
According to the wishes of many countries, this should not be taken on by Hamas under any circumstances. French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the group remains a threat. “A terrorist group with thousands of fighters, tunnels and large weapons cannot be destroyed overnight“, he said after a ceasefire was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. And British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that his country was ready to help disarm Hamas. The German government is also against a further political presence of Hamas.
The real conflict is yet to come, says Simon Engelkes. "It concerns not only the issue of weapons, but also political control and legitimacy: who will speak for Gaza in the future and what authority they will have."
Possible dangers in Europe too
However, it is risky to ignore Hamas' interests, warned the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service (BND), Martin Jaeger. If Hamas does not participate in the transitional government in Gaza, but is pushed out of Gaza or forced back into illegality, there is a "very real risk" that it will start operating outside Gaza. "This would affect the Arab world, but certainly Europe as well," he said during a hearing in the German Bundestag.
In the long term, observers agree that it is important to give the Palestinians the opportunity to live in dignity. If this does not happen, violence could flare up again.