Borisov no longer dictates the processes - he catches up with them, making increasingly risky compromises. But fear is not sustainable capital. When a leader allies not out of force, but out of fear, the end of his rule is foretold.
GERB leader Boyko Borisov forced his deputies to take the temperature and weight of the party locally. They returned with the conclusions that no one wants elections. And since there is no appetite for ballot boxes, then everything is allowed - including ”reformatting” of power, and “formalizing” of the support of oligarch-politician Delyan Peevski, as they were unanimously proposed by Borisov.
The triple coalition GERB-SDF, BSP and “There is such a people“ (ITN) will expand to a quadruple with the insertion of MPS-New Beginning, parliamentary posts for the partner and participation in the Joint Governance Council. The Socialists agree, the ITN is silent - they are probably negotiating and the outcome of the negotiations will become known at today's talks, which Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov will initiate with the two parties. “All relations between the partners in the Triple Coalition regarding power are subject to their agreements and arrangements”, says Peevski, quoted by his party's press center.
So far, no one assumes that Slavi Trifonov's party will refuse to join the new format - especially when “stability“ is presented as a national debt, not as a deal. ITN has been criticized for pretending that Peevski does not exist. Some time ago, the chairman of the ITN's PG Toshko Yordanov said on Nova TV that ITN would leave power the moment it felt "influence or obvious attempts at control, and successful ones" on the part of Peevski. The current attempt is quite visible.
"Mr. Peevski works for the people"
The order to the party's active members and deputies to check whether the GERB periphery is intact or whether competitors are "rubbing" it was played out with cheerful posts on social networks, but yesterday it became known that a mayor of a Varna village appointed by GERB had switched to DPS-New Beginning. The mayor of the village of Grozdyovo, Irhan Hasan, from the GERB civil quota, previously a member of the MRF, has switched to the MRF-New Beginnings of Peevski, who has been sanctioned for corruption by the US and the UK.
"We like Mr. Peevski's politics and the fact that he works for the people”, is his explanation on Radio Varna. He also wanted an ethnic Turk to be appointed deputy mayor in the municipality of Dolni Chiflik, where Grozdyovo is located, as in Provadia or Dalgopol. "They did not agree, they want to divide us into Bulgarians and Turks”, says Hasan. MRF-NN expanded its influence yesterday after winning the mayoral elections in the Vratsa village of Strupets and in the Dimitrovgrad town of Chernogorovo. The elected mayor of Strupets, Iliya Iliev, lost the elections two years ago as a candidate of the MRF (Dogan).
Three months earlier, the mayor of the large Rhodope village of Chepintsi, Riza Brakhimbashev, elected with the PP-DB list, also switched to Delyan Peevski's party. His motive - in two years only one project had been implemented, and the village had many needs. Thus, the mayors who have shown loyalty to Peevski number about fifty, and most of them govern municipalities in mixed regions. It is not surprising. The MRF, which Peevski has meanwhile taken over, has had supremacy there for decades through the ethnic vote.
Clientelism in politics
Party loyalty has long been not a question of ideology, but of infrastructure - who will provide funds for roads, sewage and public procurement, who will provide work, in general, who will pick up the phone when there is a need. Clientelism is the common denominator for the party "center" and the party network in the localities - mayors, municipal councilors, businessmen and figures who receive resources and provide services at the local level.
DPS-NN is the new center of attraction for those in local government who are looking for a lifeboat and for whom Peevski seems like a more reliable intermediary to the authorities - the man who does not promise, but distributes. Thus, his formation becomes a refuge for "pragmatists" who feel which way the wind is blowing and change flags.
A month ago, for example, headlines appeared that the regional governor of Razgrad, Vladimir Dimitrov, had replaced GERB with DPS-NN. The activist was expelled from Boyko Borisov's party with ridiculous arguments for non-payment of membership fees and weak participation in party life. Despite this, Dimitrov retained his position as regional governor.
Wooden Iron
Borisov's weakness and dependence on Peevski are reflected in the organizational state of the largest party. The "reformatting" may maintain the integrity of the government for a while, but at some point the tension will peak and elections will be held. Despite the first places that sociological agencies still assign to it, the alliance with Peevski is already weighing on GERB - regardless of the long behind-the-scenes cooperation. Because of the "assembly" with them, PP-DB was punished by the voters and on June 9, 2024, they lost 313,000 votes, which is half of those who voted for them in the previous vote.
Borisov's party will also pay the price for its alliance with DPS-New Beginning. For the first time, the GERB leader is officially collaborating with a more brutal and powerful partner in power, who threatens both him and his own party. So far, it has always been the opposite - GERB has broken up and absorbed the small political forces with which it has allied itself in government.
On fear in politics
Paradoxically, it is precisely the sanctions under the global "Magnitsky" law imposed on Peevski that are the only obstacle preventing Borisov from allowing open dependence on Peevski - a joint power that would permanently compromise his image as a "Euro-Atlantic" leader. The article in the "Wall Street Journal" caused its reputational damage to Boyko Borisov in foreign policy terms. The subsequent inappropriate remarks about "his friend's child" finished off the remnants of his image as an independent player and turned him into a hostage of his addictions.
Borisov no longer dictates the processes - he catches up with them, trying to preserve both his power and influence through increasingly risky compromises. But in politics, fear is never a sustainable capital. When a leader starts to form alliances not out of force, but out of fear, the end of his rule is already foretold.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the DV as a whole.