In 2021, the EU received 50 percent of its natural gas imports from Russia, with the majority of the amount transported by pipeline. But after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe reacted quickly to reduce this dependence and cut its consumption of Russian gas by two-thirds in three years.
At the same time, Europe has become dependent on imports of American liquefied natural gas - across the Atlantic Ocean to a network of special new terminals in the Community countries. In 2025, about 57 percent of the liquefied gas imported into the EU came from the United States - four times more than in 2021.
By 2030, this share will increase to 80 percent, experts from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis predict. Until 2016, the United States did not export gas because its reserves were intended for domestic consumption. Since then, they have become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.
A threat to the energy transition
While natural gas will continue to be used in the EU's energy transition, with the majority of supplies coming via pipelines from Norway, the huge increase in liquefied natural gas imports from the United States could threaten plans for energy independence, analysts say.
They note that the exclusive reliance on American liquefied natural gas runs counter to plans aimed at ending Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels for energy supplies, diversifying supply sources and accelerating the energy transition. In addition, the large volume of gas imports from the US contradicts the EU's goal of making energy cheaper.
“American liquefied gas is the most expensive for buyers in Europe, but European companies continue to sign contracts”, energy expert Anna Maria Dzhaler-Makarevich told DW. One of these contracts, for example, provides for the supply of American gas through Greek terminals to Southeast Europe and possibly to Ukraine, for a 20-year period.
Europe's dependence on the US is growing
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is continuing his strategy of “energy dominance” and in July 2025, the US-EU trade agreement was concluded, which obliges Europe to buy US energy resources (liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear energy) for 750 billion dollars (629 billion euros) annually by 2028.
„The energy agreement between the US and the EU puts pressure on Europe, forcing it to buy more US energy resources, and this will increase the risk of „geopolitical dependence„ on US liquefied natural gas,„ says Dzhaler-Makarevich.
„The agreement effectively ties the EU's energy supply to a single supplier, jeopardizes energy security and puts pressure on plans to reduce gas consumption,„ according to analyses by the Institute of Energy Economics. Demand for US gas is likely to increase as the EU plans to completely ban imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027. After the European Parliament voted in December to end gas and oil imports from Russia, experts say that banning imports alone is not enough to diversify energy supplies.
“Diversification should not mean replacing one dominant supplier with another. Europe needs a clear definition of diversification and a strategy that takes into account today's geopolitical realities”, energy analyst Raffaele Piria notes in a review.
Calls to end the US-EU trade deal
“In these turbulent geopolitical times, Europe must stand strong and united - and choose independence. This means paying more attention to clean, secure and local energy”, European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen recently said. He also recommended that Europe buy gas from countries such as Canada, Qatar and Algeria.
“Europe's energy future could change. If the EU sticks to its plans for a transition to environmentally friendly energy, gas demand will decrease”, believes analyst Dzhaler-Makarevich. In this scenario, existing agreements with the US for the supply of liquefied gas, which are based on declarations of intent - formal and without legal force - may not take place, she explains.
Meanwhile, more than 120 European and international civil society groups recently called on European politicians to halt negotiations on the US-EU trade deal, which among other things obliges Europe to import energy. The call to “reduce US fossil fuel dependence in solidarity with those threatened by Trump's resource imperialism” follows US attacks on Venezuela and territorial claims to Greenland.
Author: Steward Brown