US President Donald Trump believes that the Ukrainian conflict can be resolved soon because the Russian leadership wants to "do business with the United States". Trump will soon make a big tour of Asia… What could follow? Prof. Tatyana Dronzina, a lecturer at the Department of "Political Science" at the Faculty of Philosophy of the Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski", an expert in conflict resolution, spoke to FACTI.
– Ms. Dronzina, US President Donald Trump has undertaken a big tour of Asia. What can be stated as the main goal and what has he achieved?
– Based on what we have seen, it can be concluded that his main goals were to strengthen the US trade and strategic engagement in the region, to reach concrete agreements and to demonstrate a leading international presence. Some steps have been taken in the area of trade and investment agreements. In South Korea, the US and Seoul announced a broad agreement on investment and shipbuilding, which will become a reality in a trade deal worth about $350 billion. China softened its position on rare earth exports, promised to buy US soybeans and limit the production of drugs-related chemicals. In Malaysia and more generally in ASEAN, agreements were announced to diversify supply chains, including cooperation on rare earths and the removal of some trade barriers.
The United States agreed to reduce tariff rates on China - due to Xi's promise to finally stop the production of fentanyl precursors - by 10 percentage points, leaving the average effective rate on most Chinese goods at 47 percent. At the same time, It is clear to all that American soybean farmers, with some effort, can be replaced by Latin American farmers, especially from Brazil and Argentina. Joseph Glauber, a former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture who is now at the International Food Policy Research Institute, assessed the achievement as follows: “This is a trade agreement that involves minimal purchases, which are again below what we have sold to China in the past.“
Trump said in his post on Truth Social that China had agreed to “begin the process of buying American energy“, in particular from the state of Alaska, where a liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline is being built. However, the liquefied natural gas project in Alaska has not yet been built. The Chinese statement was much more restrained, because it indicated that Trump and Xi “... agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic, trade, energy and other areas“, but without offering further details, nor mentioning liquefied natural gas or Alaska.
Rare earths were another big issue.
Trump reported on Truth Social that “China has agreed to continue the flow of rare earths, critical minerals, magnets, etc., openly and freely“. But China's Ministry of Commerce seemed much more moderate, limiting itself to saying that Beijing would “suspend the implementation“ of the relevant export control measures announced on Oct. 9 for a year, and would “study and refine specific plans“. “I don't see a modern world in which China would eliminate its export regime. They are looking to maintain this influence on critical minerals,“ said Gracelyn Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies research, a Washington-based think tank.
– The US aims to strengthen alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia (the Indo-Pacific Strategy framework). What does this give them?
– Strengthening alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia gives the US both a military-strategic advantage, economic influence and ideological legitimacy in one of the most dynamic and conflict-ridden regions in the world. Control over key sea routes has been strengthened. It is known that Japan, the Philippines and Australia form a kind of “arc of containment“ that encompasses the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Thus, the US secures access to and control over the sea lanes through which about 60% of world trade and over 80% of China's energy imports pass. Naval bases and the deployment of military forces were also not neglected.
Japan and South Korea provide the most modern American bases in Asia (Okinawa, Yokosuka, Osana, Pyeongtaek).
The Philippines reopened four US military bases under the EDCA treaty in 2023 - critical for access to the Taiwan Strait. Through the possibility of deploying US submarines and joint exercises within the framework of AUKUS, Australia provides strategic depth for possible military operations.
Through alliances with the mentioned countries, the US is building alternative networks for high-tech production, especially of chips and rare metals. In addition, Japan and South Korea are centers of technological innovation, and Australia and the Philippines - of natural resources and cheap labor. By controlling critical technologies, the US and partners create mechanisms for joint technological control - for example, limiting the export of semiconductors to China. This not only limits Chinese technological expansion, but also deepens the dependence of allies on American technology and standards. This creates a “technological bloc“ that forms an alternative to the Chinese initiative “digital silk road“.
And what is very important — the US will be able to respond quickly to crises around Taiwan, North Korea or the South China Sea, without depending on bases in the Middle East or Europe. The political and diplomatic legitimacy of the American concept of the region was deepened by emphasizing that it will be free and open, based on the rule of law and freedom of navigation. In this way, the US positions itself as a guarantor of stability and a security partner, strengthening its influence not only in military-political terms, but also in terms of values.
– In Japan, Trump spoke of joint military exercises and modernization of bases in Okinawa, in South Korea, the commitment to the US nuclear umbrella and the joint deterrence of North Korea was emphasized, in Malaysia and the Philippines, cooperation on maritime security is sought. Are you looking for allied solidarity against China and Russia...
– Through alliances, the US aims to “encircle“ China strategically and prevent its dominance in the South China Sea and in technology markets. The US presence in the region increases the costs of Beijing's military and economic aggression, without leading to direct confrontation. The US does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, but through its allies it maintains “strategic ambiguity“ and real defense capability on the island. As a result, China is forced to balance between aggressive rhetoric and real caution so as not to provoke a united front.
By shifting the global focus from Europe to Asia, which is emerging as the economic center of the world, the US is trying to contain China — which in my opinion is one of its strategic goals for the 21st century — to restore their leadership after isolationist tendencies and doubts about Washington's commitment, and ultimately to build a "web of trust" - a system in which partners share not only interests but also mutual dependence.
– Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that he would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. A political move or an ego-pleasing move by Trump, who really wants this award…
– The symbolism and protocol of Donald Trump's last tour of Asia (October 2025) were as important as the actual economic deals. Trump has always been sensitive to attention, status and displays of respect, and Asian leaders - excellently, because they understand this - they used a combination of protocol, gifts, and rhetoric to curry favor and avoid confrontation.
Listening to Chinese leader Xi, I had the feeling that he had a specially prepared collection of compliments that he would put into action when needed. And although the meeting was cooler and more businesslike, it was prepared with extreme ritual precision. The Chinese delegation avoided any public controversy – all messages emphasized “mutual respect between great powers“.
Trump was presented with a calligraphy scroll inscribed “Shared Prosperity and Peace“, presented as a personal gift by Xi, with the wish “to go down in history as a bridge between the West and the East“.
Thus, China chose a diplomacy of dignity, knowing that direct flattery could be counterproductive, but retained the ritual solemnity that fed Trump's ego through a sense of “historic mission“.
In South Korea, President Lee Jae-myung awarded Trump with the country's highest state award - the "Order of Mugunghwa", traditionally given only to Korean presidents and monarchs. He was also presented with a gold-plated crown, a symbol of "royal friendship", a gesture that Trump accepted with apparent satisfaction. During the official dinner, burgers with ketchup, Trump's favorite food, were served, with the media noting that "the hosts have studied his tastes down to the last detail".
The speeches of the South Korean hosts emphasized Trump's "peacemaking role" on the Korean peninsula and compared him to historical leaders who "...contributed to the stability of the region", demonstrating gratitude and respect, avoiding any topics that could provoke him - such as US trade tariffs or joint defence spending.
In Japan, we saw an extraordinary amalgam of ceremony, luxury and “personal friendship“. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida welcomed Trump with a ceremony with an honour guard and imperial protocol, usually reserved for state visits by particularly respected leaders.
Trump was given a private lunch with Emperor Naruhito, an extremely rare gesture – a signal of “personal respect“ from the imperial family.
The Japanese press noted that Kishida praised Trump's business instincts and spoke of him as “a man who understands Asia”, even though real trade differences between the two countries remain. In their statements, the hosts carefully avoided criticism of US isolationism, focusing on the "restored friendship".
In this way, Japan showed that it understands Trump's psychology - the more prestige and attention it receives, the more likely it is to show flexibility on economic issues.
Malaysia welcomed the American president with a red carpet, cultural exoticism and symbolic gifts. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim organized a lavish ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, with traditional dances, a military band and cannons, the likes of which have not been used for other foreign guests.
Trump was presented with a replica of a traditional golden dagger "kris", a symbol of leadership and power in Malay culture. The media noted that the hosts' speeches were full of praise for "peacemaker and visionary Trump," even mentioning his "relentless spirit of putting America first" - a phrase intended to appeal to him.
The photos and media coverage were staged so that Trump always appeared to be the center of attention, with crowds chanting his name. Therefore, it could be argued that Malaysia is using "personalized diplomacy" - praising Trump's personality to set a favorable tone for trade negotiations.
– Trump also talked about reducing tariffs. "First strike, then give"... Is that how it works?
– Yes, that's right - This is Donald Trump's classic approach, both in business and in foreign policy. The formula "first hit, then give" (or as he calls it: "maximum pressure - then deal") is a strategy of controlled escalation, through which he first creates tension to increase his own negotiating power, and only then offers a compromise, looking like a winner. This is his trademark, based on the idea that strength breeds respect, and compromise should look like a reward, not a weakness.
And in my opinion, this reinforces his image as a dealmaker.
At the stage of "hitting" it creates a sense of instability and fear of loss; partners begin to look for a way to "appease" Washington, instead of setting their own conditions. In the media, Trump appears as a tough and decisive leader who "protects Americans."
In the "handshake" stage - offer a deal and appear to be a peacemaker - after the partner shows a willingness to make concessions, Trump changes his tone: he emphasizes that he "appreciates the efforts of the other side"; offers partial mitigation of the measures - for example, lower tariffs, market access or investment; promotes himself as "the person who resolves conflicts".
As a result, the partner feels relieved and is inclined to compromise, even under unequal conditions. Trump receives a positive media cycle, presenting him as a "tough but fair leader", and domestically he gains support from business and industrial circles.
This strategy is part of his personal diplomatic and management style. In such a psychological model, the fear of losing precedes negotiations; victory appears as a gesture of goodwill; the other party remains satisfied that it has "saved" the situation, even under unequal conditions.
This strategy works brilliantly in Asia because the Asian political and strategic culture is geared towards avoiding public conflict. Asian leaders prefer to wait, show respect and offer a “gift“ (investment, cooperation, treaty).
But at some point this will exhaust them or they will simply get tired. Australia and Japan are increasingly looking for multilateral formats (AUKUS, QUAD) so as not to be entirely dependent on the will of one person, and South Korea is internally discussing the need for “more independent defense“, as it does not know whether Trump will change his position again.
– Trump meets with Putin, then with Zelensky, the EU follows him, in Japan, Malaysia and the Philippines he is welcome. Where is Ukraine, or has Putin turned out to be an even better political player…
– I don't know if the latter is true, but while Donald Trump is touring Asia and meeting with Putin and Zelensky, the European Union is trying to keep up, and Ukraine is gradually becoming a secondary issue on the world agenda. Trump is reordering US priorities - from "Europe and war" to to “Asia and the deals“.
I think this leads to a lowering of the priority of the Ukrainian war, because what else could the lines “Europe should pay more“, that “peace can be achieved in 24 hours“ mean, if the two sides “sit down and negotiate“.
He uses Ukraine as a bargaining chip
in his broader strategy to redistribute the burden between the US, the EU and Russia, no longer even insisting on “a victory for Ukraine“, but on “a quick agreement“, even at the cost of territorial compromises.
Trump has put Asia at the center of American foreign policy – not so much from the perspective of security, but of economic benefit, control of trade and technology. This demobilizes European elites and leaves room for Russia to recover diplomatically.
- Now the question is whether Donald Trump will meet again with North Korean President Kim Jong-un?
- I find this unlikely. There is a certain interest in it. Trump has publicly stated that he is “open” to meeting with Kim during his Asian tour. Kim Jong-un expressed “good memories” of the American president and left a door open for dialogue provided that the US accepts the “reality” of his nuclear status. South Korea has called on the US to take on the role of mediator and for a new dialogue with Pyongyang. But despite the requests, there is no concrete preparation or timetable for a meeting on the North Korean side. The North Korean position remains firm. There are concerns in Washington and among allies that the meeting may demand complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. I assess the possibility of concluding a serious agreement as very low.
- What does all this mean for Europe?
- All this puts the EU in a serious strategic weightlessness. The European Union in the fall of 2025 is in a position of reaction, not of initiative, expressed in one short sentence: it cannot oppose the American line of a “frozen peace“. There is a division within the EU - Eastern Europe insists on continued support for Kiev, while Western Europe (especially France and Germany) is looking for a way out of the conflict. Brussels is focusing on economic security and energy stability, not on the military dimension. As a result, the EU is once again “going after the US“ - even when it disagrees, it has no capacity for an alternative strategy. Ukraine remains dependent on the decisions of others, and the EU and NATO follow Trump instead of leading.
Ukraine risks remaining geopolitically isolated between a tired EU and a pragmatic Washington.
Economically dependent – without a secure flow of military and financial aid, morally “on pause“ - heroized, but without a strategy for exiting the war…
I am afraid that the topic “Ukraine“ is no longer a test for the West, but a test of the audience's patience. And if Putin temporarily wins in the big game – but not because he is stronger, but because the world is tired – Trump has redirected the spotlight. In real politics “he who sets the agenda wins”. Today it is neither Zelensky nor Brussels, but Washington and Moscow – each in its own way. Even if this creates illusions (such as that Russia is a global player), these illusions seem very real to a large part of humanity.