The Kremlin calls the new US plan to end the war "forcing Ukraine to peace". But Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to support it. Why? By Ivan Preobrazhensky.
Putin admitted that he had familiarized himself with the details of the US "peace plan", according to which Ukraine is again offered to give up part of its territory, reduce the size of its army and accept other Russian demands, which have remained almost unchanged for the second year.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, promises the Ukrainians to fight for the country's sovereignty and asks the American president for a meeting. The Europeans are rejecting the plan sent by Donald Trump, which, however, was probably written under the dictation of the Kremlin's special representative Kirill Dmitriev. Moscow calls it "forcing Ukraine into peace" - just as it called its war against Georgia in 2008.
Trump's cavalry charge
The US president has rushed, just as he recently did with the war in the Gaza Strip, to try to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine. His 28-point plan, according to most commentators, is almost no different from previous proposals. It is clearly written under the dictation or in accordance with the interests of the Kremlin and is a de facto capitulation to Ukraine. Trump says he is ready to wait no more than a week - until November 27, after which the US will stop exchanging intelligence with Ukraine and stop all military aid. And it - It should be noted - not for the first time.
Previously, even after the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska, the Ukrainian authorities and their European allies managed to dissuade the American leader from supporting Russian interests, and gradually achieve the renewal of military aid to Ukraine. Putin himself said that after the meeting in Alaska, the negotiations stalled due to Ukraine's unwillingness to accept the conditions proposed to it. Which obviously means that Volodymyr Zelensky could have afforded this then. If he has managed to avoid de facto capitulation more than once this year, where is the danger of Trump's new cavalry attack in this case, why does the Ukrainian president have to turn to the people for support directly?
Corruption circumstances
The renewal of American proposals to end the war appeared at the very moment when the domestic political situation was seriously aggravated for both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. The American leader was forced to sign a law that obliges him to publish the "Epstein files" within 30 days - his late ex-friend, convicted of forcing minors to have sex with representatives of the world elite, and evil tongues say that Trump may also have something to do with this.
Volodymyr Zelensky's situation is even worse. Criminal cases are being opened against people from his closest circle in connection with the corruption scandal in the energy sector, the Verkhovna Rada is removing ministers. The population's trust in the authorities is decreasing.
Questions could not help but arise among those who helped Ukraine with money, i.e., first of all, among its European and American allies. In addition, Russia continues to advance and claims to have captured Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. That is, two trends coincide – Trump is eager to shift the attention of the American media and public opinion to something foreign policy (even if signing an agreement is not possible), and Zelensky seems politically weak enough to be put to the test. And this time, many fear that the Ukrainian authorities may become more accommodating.
Putin is still not satisfied
However, Moscow is in no hurry to celebrate. From Vladimir Putin's statements and the previous comments of his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, it is clear that the Kremlin is pleased. He does not admit that the author or co-author of these 28 points, as many media outlets have written, could be the Russian special representative Kirill Dmitriev. But Peskov calls the package of proposals "coercion for peace".
This is a famous Russian military metaphor used by the Kremlin to characterize the war against Georgia in 2008, which was also "forced to peace" at that time, and then they recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and sent Russian troops there. The use of this analogy can also be perceived as a mockery: Russia got away with it then, as it will now if the US-proposed plan is fully implemented. But it may also be a signal to Western diplomats – that the Kremlin intends to implement this plan, as it did in Georgia in 2008, taking everything it wants, but not continuing on to the country's capital.
At the same time, Putin's own statements, made before the start of the Russian Security Council meeting, show that although the plan appeals to the Russian authorities, the decision on whether they should accept it – even if Kiev accepts it – not yet. Greed and self-confidence in the Kremlin are so strong that besides Volodymyr Zelensky there is another Vladimir who can ruin the negotiations - Vladimir Putin. Because he wants all of Ukraine.
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Ivan Preobrazhensky is a doctor of political science, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe, a columnist and author of a weekly column in DV
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DV as a whole.