By the end of the year, the Russian ruble had largely recovered its position against the US dollar and the euro to the levels it had before Russia's invasion of Ukraine: on December 5, the official rate was 76.97 rubles per dollar, which is the highest value of the ruble in two and a half years. Before the war, the dollar was worth only a few rubles more.
At the same time, more and more problems are piling up in the Russian economy: there is practically no growth, loans remain expensive due to the high base interest rate, and inflation, although falling, remains high. Against this background, the strong ruble seems to brighten things up, but this is not exactly the case.
Dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in 2025
The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in 2025 came as a surprise to everyone. The expectations of both the government and many experts were for an average exchange rate of 96.5 rubles per dollar. Against this background, however, the ruble strengthened sharply, and the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov called this a “giant challenge”.
The strengthening of the national currency can be good news for citizens who use a lot of imported goods and often travel abroad. Even if imports do not become cheaper, at least they do not become more expensive. But for the government, this is a problem - when calculated in rubles, export revenues are decreasing.
In 2025, Russia's export revenues were already under pressure due to the decline in world oil prices. And the strengthening of the ruble intensified this effect. As a result, Russia's revenues from energy exports fell by 22.4 percent for the year, which is equal to 2.3 trillion rubles.
What factors influenced the ruble exchange rate in 2025
According to experts, one of the main factors for the strengthening of the ruble is the high base interest rate. The Central Bank has kept it in double digits for more than a year in an attempt to curb price growth. Expensive loans suppress consumption and increase the attractiveness of savings in rubles. In addition, exporters are having to sell their foreign exchange earnings more actively to cover their rising costs in rubles. And they are growing due to the rising cost of servicing loans.
The second factor is relatively weak imports. For the first nine months of the year, a decline of one percent was recorded compared to the previous one, and the demand for foreign exchange from businesses is not growing - again due to the high base interest rate.
Another factor is the sale of foreign exchange by the state - on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank regularly sells foreign exchange and gold. This also supports the ruble.
Finally, the exchange rate is influenced by news about the peace talks. No matter how chaotic they are, the prospect of weakening or partial lifting of sanctions against Russia in the event of noticeable progress is supporting the ruble.
Why is the ruble stabilizing?
Each of the factors plays a role, but they do not fully explain such a strong strengthening of the ruble. Most of these factors were also at work in 2024, when the ruble was significantly weaker, note analysts at “Raiffeisenbank”. Moreover, last year, for example, the base interest rate was higher than it is now.
“Experts still do not have a unified opinion on the reasons for the strengthening of the ruble, although the effect of a number of factors does not cause any doubts in anyone”, summarizes economist Sergei Aleksashenko.
He points out that the strengthening of the national currency usually leads to an increase in imports, while its weakening suppresses them. However, imports into Russia remain stable, without it being clear why this is so. “Probably the main constraints to increasing imports, along with difficulties with calculations and logistics, are related to problems with finding trading partners willing to work with Russia in conditions of great uncertainty”, the economist suggests.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate?
Analysts predict that by the end of the year the ruble will weaken, but only slightly: the dollar will cost 84 rubles, and the euro - 98.15.
A greater weakening can be expected next year - due to the reduction in the base interest rate, the reduction in the volumes of currency sold by the state and the risk of a decline in export revenues due to sanctions against “Lukoil” and “Rosneft”.
Author: Oleg Loginov