François Heisbourg is a special advisor at the Foundation for Strategic Studies. He recently returned from Lviv, where he participated in a meeting of experts and former European and Ukrainian political leaders.
In an interview with the French daily Le Figaro, he recounts how shocked Ukrainians were that Trump offered them peace negotiated on Russia's terms and that President Zelensky is faced with an impossible choice: say "No" of two great powers or accept the peace plan that could lead to a civil war in Ukraine.
LE FIGARO: What was the reaction of Ukrainians in Lviv when the new Russian-Ukrainian peace plan was announced?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: It was a shock! No one expected the publication of a plan that is a literal copy of the Russian position. The chaos that followed, with contradictory statements from American officials about the origin of the plan, is truly worrying: it is clear that there is a problem with the fragmented process of creating foreign and security policy in Washington! In addition to shock, Ukrainians reacted in two ways. Some, in an attempt to calm down, downplayed the situation, suggesting that, as usual, Trump would change his mind and that it was necessary to look at things objectively.
Others argued that Volodymyr Zelensky was in an extremely difficult situation, forced to make an impossible choice: to say "no" of two great powers or to accept the plan that could lead to the fall of his government and a possible civil war in Ukraine...
What Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's right-hand man, tried to do in Geneva was to navigate between these two options, although at the moment the outcome of the meeting is still unknown.
LE FIGARO: Did the Europeans play their role of firefighter well?
FRANCOIS HEISBURG: As for the Ukrainians, I think so, because even before the meeting the French, the British and the Germans clearly stated that they would do whatever was necessary to arm Ukraine and protect its interests. However, they did not have the opportunity to speak out, as they did in March after the media lynching of Zelensky in the Oval Office.
Then the Americans were blocked by the mass visit of Europeans who, having accompanied Zelensky to Donald Trump's office, forced him to back down. In Geneva, Trump's supporters maneuvered to prevent a repeat of the same. The European reaction, in a sense, was expected.
LE FIGARO: How do you assess the change in tone of the Americans?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: Secretary of State Marco Rubio behaved as if this was a Russian plan that had to be thwarted, improved or changed. But at the same time, Trump claimed that the Ukrainians were ungrateful... As far as I know, the American ultimatum of Thursday, Thanksgiving, remains in force. Symbolically, this is disgusting: the Ukrainians are invited to become the object of ridicule.
LE FIGARO: What are the different scenarios for implementing this peace plan?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: They depend on the choice that Trump makes between the risk of a rupture with the Atlanticists in Congress and his desire to buy an imposed peace in Ukraine. I would draw a comparison with the Armistice of Retonda of June 1940, since the Russian-American plan includes occupation zones, demarcation lines and de facto annexation, as was the case with Alsace-Lorraine. In essence, it is a peace negotiated on Russia's terms.
LE FIGARO: Doesn't the future of the plan also depend on Putin's reaction?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: Putin must have been somewhat surprised by the good news reported by the Americans. And, being quite ambitious, he indicated that this is a good basis for negotiations... Regardless of how the document will evolve in the coming days, Russia has already modified the unconditional ceasefire proposal made by Trump earlier this year. The ceasefire is now conditional on the recognition of substantial changes. The Americans seem to have given way on this issue.
And it is difficult to imagine that Trump will return to his original position, since he really wants a peace agreement. The question of elections is also crucial. They must be held within three months. Good. But they, of course, cannot be held in 20% of the territory occupied by Russia. This means that the elections would in effect formalize the division of Ukraine into two parts, legitimizing the Russian annexations.
LE FIGARO: Is there a less catastrophic scenario for the Ukrainians?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: Since the Americans began their mediation efforts, Russia has failed to make any proposals by rejecting them. The least catastrophic scenario would be that the Russians keep their money and decide to continue the war until even more advantageous offers are made. At best, what happened in the spring will be repeated.
As for the rest, I don't know if the Americans will insist on a NATO presence, which would give substance to the supposed security guarantees provided for in the plan. That is one of the main questions. Because without soldiers there are no guarantees, especially considering that Ukraine is deprived of any prospect of joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
LE FIGARO: Is the diplomatic sequence in Geneva the definitive proof that Trump is abandoning Ukraine and its European allies?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: As for Ukraine, the answer is "yes". Trump admits that Europe supplies Ukraine with weapons purchased from the United States, but no longer wants to provide them. As for the abandonment of the Europeans, it is underway, although not yet complete. The United States remains a member of NATO. It continues to make significant efforts in intelligence, information, command and control. The White House could, however, make significant changes to NATO's chain of command, which would mark the beginning of a withdrawal.
LE FIGARO: What other leverage do the Europeans have?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: They have one means of action: to use frozen Russian assets to arm Ukraine.
LE FIGARO: Are the Ukrainians losing the war?
FRANCOIS HEISBOURG: That's the paradox: the answer is no. But they're not winning either. But that's not the same. Despite the enormous difficulties they face, especially in terms of human resources for their armed forces, the front line remains the same as it was two years ago.
In this way, they are trying to impose peace on a country that has not been defeated on the battlefield. This is a way for Russia to win the war without achieving its military goals. This is one of the reasons why this plan is so intolerable. In 1940, before accepting the German terms, the French had already lost the war. However, the Ukrainians have not yet lost.