Donald Trump is talking about attacks that will last four weeks. The US Department of Defense prefers not to specify specific deadlines. How long will Iran be able to respond to Israel and the US with retaliatory strikes? And what could the strategy look like?
Cornelius Adebar: The big question is what Iran could actually achieve with the resources it has left. Since the damage is many - missile bases, drones, factories, air defense and, of course, the military leadership.
It follows that what we are currently seeing is probably something like decentralized activity of individual units - be it the army or the Revolutionary Guard, who are trying to strike targets of their choosing. At the moment it doesn't look like there is any internal control and leadership. That is the biggest obstacle for the Iranians - that they cannot coordinate and that, for example, the stock of missiles accumulated after last summer's war is running out.
What does this mean specifically?
Cornelius Adebar: This means that we really cannot judge how long Iran will last. The aim of the country's leadership is probably to hit as many neighboring countries as possible. Attacks on neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf are already a fact.
Saudi Arabia will probably try to get involved. This means that as the war widens and the chaos deepens, the Iranian regime may well count on a chance of survival.
The war has also reached Lebanon. How likely is further escalation in the region?
Cornelius Adebar: It will depend on whether the Americans and Israelis, with their more than 1,000 strikes, will achieve success in the medium term, so that the Iranians will not be able to launch more missiles. This is currently unclear.
Fighters from the Shiite militia Hezbollah, which is an ally of Iran, have already started to strike - something that did not happen last summer. They are naturally backed up against the wall, because their ally, their sponsor in Tehran, has been weakened. The Hamas militias are already in retreat. The Houthis could intervene on Iran's side, causing instability in the Red Sea. But these are scenarios that have occurred in the past, and they have never materialized.
Iran's supreme leader is dead. But Iran is not a one-man dictatorship, as we see - new faces are constantly appearing and the regime does not collapse. What needs to happen for the internal stability of the power apparatus to be destroyed? Or can they continue like this?
Cornelius Adebar: Part of the security forces must change sides. Usually, the army is meant, but in addition to it there is also the Revolutionary Guard, which takes certain ideological positions and protects the Islamic Republic as such.
The army feels more strongly connected to the state of Iran. Let us recall that during the Islamic Revolution in 1979, it went over to the other side, which of course was a signal. But so far there are no such signs.
Most recently - in January - the regime brutally suppressed protests and, causing the deaths of probably tens of thousands of protesters, showed that it is ready to literally walk over corpses to maintain order. This is a double blow to the population, which is already under fire.
What is the current power of the Revolutionary Guard?
Cornelius Adebar: The Revolutionary Guards are probably the ones who currently - if at all - still have power and have a say. They are also the ones who are always seen as a possible alternative. Not in the sense of democratic change, but as people who can say: we will overthrow the religious leadership. The Supreme Leader has already been killed. Now the question would be who will succeed him.
And this transition could be used to establish another governing regime, based on the Revolutionary Guard, but which would then offer new relations to the Americans. This would be the same scenario as in Venezuela – it just changes the tip and in the end the changes are much less than people initially expected.
And what are the possibilities of the Iranian people?
Cornelius Adebar: The population is under a double threat - from the war and from their own regime. People are being urged to leave Tehran, they are filled with concern for their loved ones.
This is not the time to resist the regime. The time for that was in January. Then Trump offered help. But now it comes much later. And it may turn out that the time to expand the change that began to emerge in Iran has already passed.
Author: Jesse Wellmer (ARD)