The occupation of territories is not a reason to refuse EU membership, an example of which is the divided island of Cyprus. With security guarantees, Brussels could accept a divided country. Is this an option for Ukraine?
From the beginning of 2026, Cyprus will take over the presidency of the Council of the EU. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulis said that his country “has always been on the side of Ukraine, on the right side of history“ and intends to continue to actively defend Kiev's interests on the EU agenda.
However, not only political support but also experience in the field of European integration may be important for Ukraine. Since both Cyprus, which has been a member of the EU since 2004, and Ukraine, which is just beginning its path to the EU, have a common problem - occupied territories. Could the experience of Cyprus be useful for Ukraine?
Are there any similarities between Cyprus and Ukraine?
Cyprus joined the EU as part of the large-scale enlargement of the Community in 2004. The case is special, since the island was divided into two parts as a result of the Turkish invasion in 1974. Today, the southern part of the island is controlled by the internationally recognized government of the Republic of Cyprus, while the north is the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Ankara.
Cyprus is often used as an example for Ukraine, but the two cases have little in common, says defense expert Roger Hilton. The decision on Cyprus, he says, was "exceptional" and "politically motivated." "It was agreed before the signing of the Lisbon Treaty and before the introduction of the stricter requirements for the rule of law and the conditions for enlargement that apply today," Hilton says.
He adds that Brussels has suspended EU law in the northern part of Cyprus, hoping that joining the community will contribute to the unification of the island. But “these expectations have failed and the unification process has reached a dead end“. In the case of Ukraine, we are talking about Russia's active aggressive war for territories closely related to the rest of the country, which creates serious risks for the EU - for its security, for the budget and for the work of the institutions.
The occupation of territories is not a reason for non-admission to the EU
These circumstances were well known to Brussels when Ukraine officially received candidate status from the EU in June 2022, claims Denis Chenusha, an expert from the Lithuanian Center for Geopolitics and Security Studies. His opinion is that “although the Cyprus solution can hardly be called positive“, this is “the only possible path“ for Ukraine. Cyprus has become "a kind of learning process for the EU in terms of what it means to have a country with unresolved territorial issues within its membership," notes Chenusha.
When Ukraine joins the EU, Brussels should proceed from the main argument: not to allow a foreign country to veto EU enlargement through indefinite occupation of the territory of a candidate country, believes Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official.
When accepting Cyprus in 2004, the EU assumed that the occupied territories would join the Community "after achieving national unification and agreeing on a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops." “An important condition for enlargement in such cases is the non-recognition of the illegal annexation or occupation of a territory by a foreign state“, Shi emphasizes.
Change in the demography of the occupied territories
According to the expert, this approach has obvious advantages: it “does not reward aggression“. In addition, “the de jure admission of the entire territory of the country to the EU will become an incentive for the population of the occupied regions to strive for unification, since this means automatic membership in the EU“.
However, on the island of Cyprus, these calculations did not work out, although public opinion in the northern part is moving in a pro-European direction, Shi admits. He explains this by the fact that the Turkish authorities have "populated Northern Cyprus with thousands of migrants from Turkey, changing the traditional identity of the Turkish Cypriot population and complicating the unification process."
It is significant that Russia is also resorting to a policy of forced Russification and demographic changes in the occupied Donbas and Crimea. Therefore, the unification of the territories in the case of Ukraine may take much longer than expected.
NATO membership as a deterrent
When analyzing the parallels between the European integration of Cyprus and Ukraine, it is important to take into account the geopolitical status of the neighboring countries. According to former EU Ambassador to Ukraine José Manuel Pinto Teixeira, the “key element” that helped Cyprus enter the EU under difficult conditions was Greece. “In 2004, when the enlargement of the Community to include the countries of Central and Eastern Europe was planned, Greece threatened to block their entry if Cyprus was not accepted”, the diplomat says.
Compared to Ukraine, the situation in Cyprus seemed “significantly easier” also because Turkey is a candidate for EU membership and part of NATO, Shi notes. And in the case of Ukraine, even with a ceasefire and peace, the prospect of a new Russian invasion remains real, especially since neither Ukraine nor Russia are members of NATO, which excludes the presence of a deterrent factor.
The EU must thwart Putin's ambitions to integrate Ukraine
Despite the differences, the Cypriot experience of joining the EU can and should be applied to Ukraine, experts believe. Diplomat Pinto Teixeira emphasizes that the historical circumstances of the Cyprus conflict are “much more complex“ than the situation in Ukraine. “Ukraine can be integrated into the EU on the Cyprus model with all its territories within internationally recognized borders, despite the occupation of part of its lands by Russia,“ the former ambassador is convinced.
The example of Cyprus shows that the EU is able to accept a divided country with security guarantees, Jamie Shea also believes. Brussels should build on this experience and "not turn the illegal occupation of part of Ukrainian territory into an obstacle to its entry into the EU." "Putin wants exactly this, and the future of Europe will depend on whether it succeeds in thwarting his plans," the analyst concludes.