The regional alliances that existed before the outbreak of the current war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other were mostly solid alliances, but they are likely to be subjected to “serious disruptions“ if the conflict continues and expands.
One of the most famous assumptions that has been proven false during the current war is that the presence of Western or US bases in the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar) does not provide real protection for these allied countries. Iran's actions and capabilities during the confrontation demonstrated the lack of this role and that the United States was simply contributing to the defense of Israel.
Although these bases were established in the context of what the West described as a state of "Iranian bullying" of the Gulf states at the political, diplomatic, and economic levels, which prompted these states, given the imbalance in capabilities between them and Iran, to opt for Western protection for themselves rather than forging joint Arab defense coordination, and with the reduction in the protection provided by these bases, other defense frameworks "more in keeping with the nature of the region" may be reconsidered in the future.
It is worth noting that the United States maintains an extensive network of military facilities, both permanent and temporary, in approximately 19 locations in the Middle East region. Among these sites are 8 permanent bases located in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
As for the positions of the main Arab states, the Egyptian position was clearly expressed in a statement by the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This position supports the Gulf states, condemns Iranian aggression and calls for de-escalation, warning that the war poses a direct threat to regional stability and security, with consequences extending to international security. There is no possibility of Egyptian military intervention in this conflict, as Egypt has a firm position based on not engaging directly in regional conflicts, as demonstrated in previous crises such as the war in Yemen and the situation in Sudan, despite the accompanying pressures.
As for the North African countries, the geographical distance, the nature of the armies and the domestic political conditions make it unlikely that these countries will get involved in the conflict and their role will be limited to diplomatic interaction and calls for calm, as indicated in the statement of the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
It is clear that the Gulf states are already certain that the US bases on their lands are not there to protect them, despite previous lessons that did not help them discover this.
Examples include the UAE, which was the target of missile strikes by the Houthis in Yemen two years ago, and Qatar, which was the target of missile strikes by Israel at the end of last year, as well as the lack of action by American bases to intercept these missile strikes in both cases.
However, the situation with Iran has lifted the veil from our eyes and it has become clear that the strategic ally, represented by the United States of America, is following and is being led to implement the Israeli plan to incite the Gulf states to join the conflict and deepen the regional crisis, which could open wide the way and the doors to the separation of the countries of the region, including Saudi Arabia and Iran.