Russia's war against Ukraine has been going on for almost four years. In the West, military and politicians are horrified by the scale of Russian losses - over a million killed and wounded. And how does Russian society react?
Lev Gudkov: It can't answer this question because the topic is completely taboo. Any mention of Russian losses and conversations about them bring with them fines or prosecution. That's why people assume that the victims are many. But no one knows exactly how many. Although coffins are coming, they arrive mainly in the countryside, and this affects individual families and does not become a collective topic for discussion.
And how do Russians feel the economic consequences of these four years of war - the increase in VAT, inflation? Doesn't this lead to a change in attitude towards the war?
Lev Gudkov: Indirectly - yes. But the connection between price increases, inflation and the understanding of the growing problems in the military sphere and military spending has been broken. People are primarily interested in price increases and the resulting decline in living standards. Among their main problems, the war is in second or third place.
Anxiety and fear, but also aggression towards Ukraine
In 2025, Ukraine increasingly shelled Russian territory in response to Russian attacks - oil refineries, but not only. What are the reactions?
Lev Gudkov: This causes some anxiety in general and fear in those regions where the attacks are taking place. The situation there is different. On the one hand, this causes great anxiety, fear, worry and accusations against the authorities that they are doing nothing to ensure the security of the population. On the other hand, this causes an increase in aggression towards the Ukrainian side.
A poll by the "Levada" center in January showed that 76 percent of Russians support the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine. But over 60 percent are in favor of peace negotiations. Isn't this a contradiction?
Lev Gudkov: Yes, of course. For four years, support and approval for military actions have remained at the same level - 70-75 percent. Putin's rating has hardly changed either. And at the same time, 66 percent, according to the latest data, would like the war to end. People are tired of the war, but they don't see how it can end.
What does "tired" mean? What does it express?
Lev Gudkov: This is psychological fatigue caused by the fear of mobilization, of the transfer of hostilities, the expansion of the conflict, the involvement of Western countries. The second is the social consequences, i.e. the reduction of social spending, the deterioration of the situation in medicine, the increase in taxes. This is moral discomfort - not exactly a feeling of guilt, but discomfort from the fact that people are dying, that there is destruction. The war has lost its meaning.
Do they in Russia know about what is happening in Ukraine as a result of the Russian shelling? Especially now, when hundreds of thousands, if not millions, are freezing in Kiev.
Lev Gudkov: No, they don't know. I would also say that they don't want to know because it's unpleasant. These are unpleasant things that make you have to answer the same questions - why is this war being waged, what is the degree of responsibility of each person for it. This issue is being pushed out of consciousness.
Russians will support Putin in the next two years
You say that in four years the attitude towards the war has practically not changed. Does the approval of the military actions and the level of support for Putin mean that Russia can continue this war for another four years and the attitude will still not change?
Lev Gudkov: In four years I can't say, but in the next two years - yes, Putin can continue this war. He has enough resources. Social protests are at their lowest level in the entire observed time. People have lost their understanding of how long the war will last. If in 2022 they believed that it was a blitzkrieg, today the majority does not know and is not able to answer the question of how long it will last - a year, two or more. This means that they are simply incompetent in this sense and have no opportunities for influence. This is an expression of their own helplessness.
Sociologists in Ukraine constantly ask citizens what concessions they are ready to make in the name of ending the war. Do you ask such a question in Russia?
Lev Gudkov: Yes, but the absolute majority shares the same position as Putin - no concessions to Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to surrender, preserving the occupied territories for Russia, including Crimea, Donbass, etc.
*Lev Gudkov is deputy director of the Moscow-based "Levada" center and its scientific supervisor. A few days ago, "Levada" published the results of a poll on the mood among Russians after 4 years of war.
Author: Roman Goncharenko