For nearly a decade, the Bulgarian economy has been experiencing an acute, and in some sectors, a desperate need for labor - from low- to highly qualified.
The deficit in our labor market dates back to before the COVID-pandemic, and now it threatens to "stumble" further economic development.
And it cannot be otherwise, since over the last quarter century our economy has experienced a real boom (GDP jumped from 12-13 billion euros per year at the end of the last century to over 100 billion euros in 2024), while demography has not only not followed suit, but on the contrary - is shrinking (from 8.1 million people in 2000 to 6.4 million in 2024).
Respectively, the working-age population is decreasing dramatically, and unemployment practically disappears (at 16.2% in 2000, in 2024 the official unemployment rate according to the NSI is 4.2%, but in reality there is no person in Bulgaria who is actively looking for work and cannot find one).
Recently, this problem has been solved by importing labor from third countries (outside the EU), with the state even planning to ease the access regime to our labor market. What is being done at the moment is obviously the easiest solution, but is it the best?
Importing workers from countries where there is the greatest desire to come to our country may be a temporary solution, although not entirely positive, because it also involves the risk of dumping wages.
Moreover, it certainly carries risks in the long term. The experience of a number of Western European countries shows that this leads to a replacement of the population and the civilizational basis, and examples such as the social tension that recently appeared in Polski Trambesh due to the presence of Pakistani immigrants are just the beginning...
Therefore, instead of importing a "time bomb", let's consider the possibilities for improving the situation:
Technologies. Automation, computerization, robotization, artificial intelligence. Their introduction wherever possible will not only ease the labor market, but also increase productivity.
And following the example of Japan, we will save ourselves the "multicultural" headaches of Western Europe of the last few decades. Therefore, our "lag behind" from most Western European countries in terms of labor needs is now an advantage - increasingly accessible high technologies can save us from the period of mass admission of guest workers.
Of course, this cannot happen "from one day to the next". Serious investments and equally serious state policy are needed - subsidies for technological innovations, tax breaks, etc. (instead of the current faltering on renewable energy and electric vehicles, for example). Solutions with a shorter-term effect must also be sought.
Dual education could be such a thing. Education in the last two grades of high school may be conducted less in classrooms, at the expense of mandatory-elective internships (elective according to the professional orientation of the students).
On the one hand, the legislation indicates the age of 16 as entering working age, but in general, Bulgarian teenagers do not start working before completing their secondary education (i.e. at 18-19 years old). On the other hand, these internships can be both "learning a trade from A to B" and preparation for their higher education.
Speaking of higher education: studying for 4 years for a bachelor's degree and another for a master's degree is an outdated idea from the times before the Internet and artificial intelligence.
In the accelerated rhythm of modern times, with the exception of medicine, law, engineering specialties, in most cases studying for 4 years is completely unnecessary - the necessary knowledge can be mastered in a year and a half or two.
A separate question is how much our university education is related to the needs of the labor market. In any case, a reform in higher education can help a lot.
And, of course, reducing the state apparatus - this hardly needs justification. More importantly, no matter how many people are laid off, the private sector will take them over immediately without any problems.
And if all these measures prove insufficient, any possible import of labor should be carried out as a priority by the European Union.
After all, the fundamental idea of the EU is this - free movement of people, goods and capital. And this is not just about bringing back Bulgarian citizens who emigrated earlier.
We can safely target native residents of other EU countries, advertising a huge competitive advantage of Bulgaria: the safe life in our country.
Yes, Bulgaria may not have the standard of living of France, Germany, Belgium, Sweden, but it is currently a significantly safer place to live than the countries mentioned. Mostly because it has not allowed mass migration from the Third World.
It is mandatory that the Bulgarian ethnic minorities from countries outside the EU - Serbia, North Macedonia, Moldova, Ukraine, Albania, Kosovo - should also be the subject of targeted policy.
In today's realities, it is unthinkable for Bulgaria to unite within its ethnic territories, but a unification of the population is completely achievable. Especially considering that economically Bulgaria is ahead of all the countries mentioned. And if the ethnic resource proves insufficient, we can also invite Serbs and Ukrainians, who would assimilate in a generation or two.
As for Moldova and Albania, they currently seem to be the most advanced in their accession to the EU, therefore the entry of Moldovans and Albanians is also a matter of time.
Let's not forget another ethnic group, which, although geographically far from us, would fit very well into our reality - the white farmers from South Africa.
It is clear that the import of labor from distant and foreign to us in terms of civilization countries has alternatives. We just need to work purposefully on them.