Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
Fortresses are taken from within, just like parties. That is why the maneuver of a figure as significant for GERB as Delyan Dobrev with an unannounced departure and return to GERB is a symptom of a rift. Without saying a word, Dobrev, a member of the party's top leadership, which is the Executive Committee, showed that there is tension. This is not just the usual dispute over the lists, but a clash for power and influence and accumulated disagreements.
The announcement of the departure first appeared on sites associated with the DPS-New Beginning and the influence of oligarch Delyan Peevski, and was preceded by a change of Dobrev's profile picture on Facebook to a man on top of a mountain, looking towards new horizons. Speculation that Dobrev was leaving GERB after a dispute with leader Boyko Borisov, and that there was also tension with others such as parliamentary stalwart Denitsa Sacheva and the outgoing Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, spread instantly. Sacheva denied any conflict, Borisov too, and rumors of discord in GERB even suggest a coup attempt.
GERB is not the mastodon it once was
"The second in GERB, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, failed to split the party in 2020, what's left for Dobrev!", commented on social networks. But GERB after 2021 is no longer the familiar mastodon - it is a party burdened by the sins of the three terms in power, forced to make compromises and enter into compromising alliances, including with Delyan Peevski, sanctioned for corruption by the US and UK. In addition, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Borisov, trapped in such a pair, to navigate a terrain where even those closest to him no longer guarantee full loyalty, and the balance of power is constantly being tested.
So Dobrev's departure in 2026 will have a destructive impact on GERB, significantly greater than Tsvetanov and the "Republicans for Bulgaria" he created. Six years ago, GERB had no strong opponents, but today is different. In the upcoming elections, the former president Rumen Radev will participate as the leader of a coalition, and some unofficial forecasts already assign him first place. And for second place there are many contenders: PP-DB, DPS-New Beginning - besides Borisov's party, of course, which means that its internal party stability is of critical importance.
GERB no longer has the luxury of inviolability. Organized coalitions and new leaders are confronting the party. In such a context, every strategic maneuver by prominent figures like Dobrev is a signal that the old order in GERB is at risk. It is no wonder that Boyko Borisov's leadership throne is not safe.
It is always about money and influence
Whatever the conflict in GERB was about - influence in energy, arranging lists, financial affairs, Dobrev came out the winner. Boyko Borisov cannot afford to lose a person from the party leadership before such important elections. And Dobrev's resignation could drag others with him.
This is not the first time he has gotten away with it. Borisov is known for the rough way in which he got rid of party members who were involved in a scandal - he parted with them without pity and without the option of returning. Not with Delyan Dobrev.
In 2017, Elena Yoncheva, at that time a BSP MP, accused him of creating a “kinship-clientelistic network” in the Haskovo municipality. He resigned, which the majority in parliament led by GERB rejected. The BSP appealed to the Constitutional Court (CS), but Dobrev withdrew his resignation and remained an MP before it ruled. He later lost the “Kumgate” case against Yoncheva.
But when he resigned as a MP from the 44th National Assembly in 2019, it was accepted. The reason for this was information on the “Bivol” website that his mother, father and cousin had purchased properties in Sofia at prices lower than market prices. After “Apartmentgate” He was out of active politics for two years, but returned to parliament in 2021.
Delyan Dobrev is not one of the “founding fathers” of GERB, but he has been with Borisov since his first term in office, when he headed the Ministry of Economy, Energy and Tourism after the removal of Traycho Traykov.
“We are facing a fierce clash with the “Borisov-Peevski” model,” Radev said from Berlin. GERB is also aware of this, although in politics irreconcilable opponents can become coalition partners. Due to the elections, Dobrev and leader Borisov have concluded a (temporary) truce, and the conflict is frozen.
Dobrev on Peevski's team?
“Delyan Dobrev and Peevski split the GERB group”, headlines read after the information about the resignation of the chairman of the budget committee in the 51st National Assembly. Speculation about this connection has long been present, not only because of general proposals such as an inspection of “Lukoil Bulgaria” - that the refinery processed and sold fuels produced from Russian oil abroad, including the EU. Dobrev was on the same team with DPS-New Beginning and for other serious changes in energy. For example, the urgently submitted and quickly voted bill to allow the National Security Agency to decide on the sale of “Lukoil Neftochim Burgas”.
Of course, outside of politics, Delyan Dobrev could be involved in business. For example, to participate in energy efficiency programs for buildings (renovation) or something else. But politics provides far more vast fields for expression. "The rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated," he quoted Mark Twain in a Facebook post announcing that he was not leaving GERB.
And does Boyko Borisov still have the key to the fortress? Whoever it is in, GERB has tamed the scandal for now. Whether the rift has been stopped, the elections will show.